A Third Lebanon War Could Be Much Worse than the Second at The Ouwet Front: A Lebanese Forces Blog

A Third Lebanon War Could Be Much Worse than the Second

Posted by Y

commentarymagazine.com | by Michael J. Totten

Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah recently announced that he could hit any and every place in Israel with long-range missiles. That would mean that, unlike in 2006, Hezbollah could strike not only the northern cities of Kiryat Shmona and Haifa but also Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Ben-Gurion International Airport, and the Dimona nuclear-power plant.

I dismissed his claim as a wild boast last week, but Israeli army commander Major General Gabi Ashkenazi confirmed it this week. So while we’ve all been worried about Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been quietly arming his chief terrorist proxy with more advanced conventional weapons.

A Third Lebanon War could make the Second Lebanon War in 2006 look like a minor kerfuffle. And the Second Lebanon War was anything but. When Noah Pollak and I covered it from the Israeli side, we found the whole northern swath of the country emptied of people and cars like it was the end of the world. The city of Tiberias looked like a zombie movie set. Kiryat Shmona is so close to the border that the air raid sirens often didn’t start wailing until after Hezbollah’s incoming Katyusha rockets had already exploded.

Meanwhile, pitched battles between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah seriously chewed up South Lebanon. The centers of entire towns were pulverized by Israeli air and artillery strikes. More than a thousand people were killed, many of them civilians used by Hezbollah as human shields.

Hezbollah is much more dangerous than any terrorist group that has ever been fielded from the West Bank or Gaza. It managed to create hundreds of thousands of refugees inside Israel, and it did so with fewer and shorter range rockets than it has now. And while the “Party of God” may think it’s terrific that it can do what Hamas in Gaza only fantasizes about, its arsenal indirectly threatens Lebanon just as much if not more than it threatens Israel. Nasrallah can unleash a great deal of destruction, but it’s still no match for what the IDF can dish out while fighting back.

If Israel’s nuclear power plant comes under fire, if Tel Aviv skyscrapers explode from missile attacks, if Hezbollah manages to turn all of Israel into a kill zone where there is no place to run, Israelis will panic like they haven’t since the 1973 Yom Kippur War when it briefly appeared the Egyptian army might overrun the whole country. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere in Lebanon while Israelis are actively fending off that kind of assault. No country can afford to be restrained while fighting for its survival.

The last Lebanon caught almost everyone by surprise, although it should not have. The next one might start much the same way because few seem to be taking its likelihood or its potential magnitude seriously.

It’s possible that a “balance of terror” on each side of the border will prevent anyone from doing anything stupid, but I wouldn’t count on it. Hezbollah’s rhetoric is more belligerent this year than ever. Not only does Nasrallah threaten to avenge the assassination of his military commander Imad Mugniyeh, he and the rest of the leadership fantasize in public about nuclear war.

Christopher Hitchens went to a commemoration for Mugniyeh in the suburbs south of Beirut earlier this year and saw a huge poster of a nuclear mushroom cloud next to the stage. “OH ZIONISTS,” read the inscription below, “IF YOU WANT THIS TYPE OF WAR THEN SO BE IT!”

This, I’m certain, really is bombast – at least for now. Nasrallah doesn’t have nuclear weapons. Apocalyptic imagery and rhetoric, though, tells us something important about Hezbollah’s psyche.

Just ask yourself how you would have felt during the Cold War if Ronald Reagan or Mikhail Gorbachev said “SO BE IT” to nuclear war. I would have wanted to hide in my basement or go off-planet entirely. And I have a hard time imagining an American or Russian crowd roaring with applause and pumping its fists in the air in response to that sort of thing. That’s just not how Americans or Russians thought about a nuclear holocaust. Israelis don’t think about nuclear war that way either, nor do Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon. The same is almost certainly true of the millions of Iranian citizens who brave beatings, arrest, and worse to yell “death to the dictator” in the streets of Tehran.

Hezbollah’s mindset is different. If you expect moderation, reasonableness, and restraint from that crowd, you are far more optimistic than I am.

Filed under: Lebanon
Posted by Y on 11.20.09 @ 4:39 pm | 24 Comments

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24 Comments. Add your own...

1. avi | November 20th, 2009 at 5:06 pm

If this article is all true than hezb’s assassins have already succeeded in destroying Lebanon and Israel……but the thing is will hezb really survive this time if they push it too far.Israel from what I heard is not alone…….
2. Darwish | November 20th, 2009 at 10:16 pm

I am really tired of this type of speculation. I do not believe that Hizb is willing to try to start another fight and they know their missiles are not truly a match for air power that the israelis have…they have not been able to shoot any jet back in 2006 and they sustained heavy losses both human and material, butthe biggest reason why they wont start a war is because the shia base is not ready for another war and hizb does not have the money to compensate for more damages. I dont believe that the next war will be launched by hizb. it’s all hot air!
3. danny | November 20th, 2009 at 10:51 pm

Darwish,

If their guns are no match to the Israelis and no deterrent…Do you wonder why they insist on keeping their ever increasing aresenal?
Also, if you notice on the recent capture of the ammunition and ‘missiles” by Israelis most seemed to be 106mm or smaller caliber weapons; best suited for fighting in shorter proximity…No range to reach Israel…
4. Darwish | November 21st, 2009 at 12:12 am

Danny,

Their arsenal is a guarantee to them. It gives them a political and military edge on the local scene, and by hoarding high caliber missiles they project an image of a powerful adversary even though in an open war with Israel they’d be mostly on the defensive. It’s all about intimidation and strong arm tactics.
5. hochoz | November 21st, 2009 at 12:37 am

Where’s Reminder and the rest of the m8 puppets?

للمرة الثانية على التوالي لم يمثل عنصر “حزب الله” مصطفى المقدم أمام المحكمة العسكرية الدائمة لمحاكمته بتهمة إطلاق النار على الطوافة العسكرية التابعة للجيش اللبناني في تلال بلدة سجد وقتل قائدها النقيب الطيار سامر حنا. وكانت المحكمة العسكرية افرجت عن المقدم في 17 حزيران الماضي لقاء كفالة مالية قدرها عشرة ملايين ليرة لبنانية على أن يتعهد بحضور جلسات المحاكمة.
6. danny | November 21st, 2009 at 6:17 am

hochoz…Maybe he was having a green tea with ja3farito
7. danny | November 21st, 2009 at 6:20 am

4…

the only thing it gives them is more equipment for the inevitable civil war…As far as HA insists to keep their guns forever off course to terrorise the elected deputies (as it just did as well as May 7)…
Unfortunately turnabout will be fare game when the rest (non shias) spank them ala May 7th after a devastating Israeli attack!!
8. Mike | November 21st, 2009 at 7:35 am

“More than a thousand people were killed, many of them civilians used by Hezbollah as human shields”.
Sounds like BS coming out of avi’s mouth.
Millitarily on that type of ground offensive, it would be impossible unless hezbollah strapped children to some sort of riot shield and ran across the israeli border using them for cover. Then they say they were firing rockets from next to villages. Who exactly killed the civilians? Hezbollah rockets or israeli missiles?

Hezbollah does not have any form of nuclear weapons but can use Israel’s own against it if they were to use it on lebanon.

Israel will most likely use more depleted uranium and toxification bombs.

Their is no way Israel can defeat Hezbollah on the ground. It is impossible. They lack the tactics, organization and will power to even come close.

“We can’t defeat Hezbollah unless we burn every inch of Lebanon”.- Peres

I doubt they will with all the UNIFL there. Why do you think they let them into the South in the first place? Not for resolution 1701 but for that reason only.

The next war will be more strikes on Bekka and southern beirut-mount lebanon area. Most leb army positions will be included. Not like they pose a threat but as a middle finger from the IDF.They will try to diversify from only attacking the shiite areas. They want us Christians to have some fun too. Good thing is we got anti-aircraft weapons which will be a detterent to lots of aerial attacks and will limit low fight attacks significantly.

The IDF special forces will try to do many short, quick incursions deep into Lebanon trying to capture certain officials or drop tactical spying equipment and maneuvering teams. They will be ousted like the dogs that they are.

End result probably 10 times as worse as 2006. Both countries on their knees and the zionist plan for the middle east trying its best to come into effect if not stopped.

This all without mentioning iran, syria(if anything significant) and hamas’s help.
9. Lebanonjon | November 21st, 2009 at 8:37 am

Mike , you forgot Ja33oura using his slipper defence shield aginst incoming cruise missiles
10. danny | November 21st, 2009 at 3:10 pm

Mike…Could you really forward the new DVD before it hits the cinemas…You are going to be the new rising star!
11. danny | November 21st, 2009 at 3:11 pm

Mike…Come on now when did you convert to Christianity? Who’s your spiritual leader? Khameini??
12. Darwish | November 21st, 2009 at 5:23 pm

Mike…I love your brand of sci-fi…please keep up the stories, it provides for much needed entertainment on this blog…now if we could only stream your thoughts visually…perhaps N will come up with the technology:-)
13. Darwish | November 21st, 2009 at 5:29 pm

danny 7…Hizb has no interest in getting into a civil war, it will only diminsh its stature and take away from its regional and global usefulness that they have for their iranians masters. It’s all about perception and strategy..just the fact that Hizb is a thorn on Israel’s side and is somewhat of a deterrent to protect iranians interests in the region it meets its goals.
14. avi | November 21st, 2009 at 5:31 pm

Darwish for once it seems we agree.
15. avi | November 21st, 2009 at 7:20 pm

Another one about life in Israel for Mike a little more reality……..

We’re staying at a kibbutz hotel called Kfar Giladi, where we’re literally moments away from the border with Lebanon (which lobbed a rocket into Israel last week) and an hour away from the border with Syria (which is calling for negotiations while threatening “resistance” at the same time). We’re having a great time: the weather’s cool and almost fall-like (which is not easy in a country that is mostly desert!); there is already a dusting of snow on Mount Hermon and today we’re off to explore a nearby hot springs called Khamat Gader near the Golan Heights (which is a piece of land Syria wants to negotiate and resist about!).

Along the way to Kfar Giladi, we passed from the near-tropical, with fields of banana trees, to the more temperate upper Galilee area, with field after field of apple trees.

Two weeks ago, however, we drove South, through the starkly beautiful Negev desert, to the opposite end of Israel — Eilat on the Red Sea. There we were about a 15-minute drive away from Egypt (whose parliament has been making rumbly noises about the treaty with Israel). A mere 10-minute drive to the west, and we could have crossed the border into Jordan (which has also been grousing about their relationship with Israel).

To put some of this geography in perspective, let’s say Kfar Giladi is actually Boiceville. It’s as if Mount Tremper (Lebanon) has been shooting rockets down Route 28 toward the Boiceville market, while the governor in Albany (Syria) is threatening to send troops down the Thruway if Boiceville doesn’t give up the Onteora Central School!

As for a local geographic analogy to Eilat, it would be as if the residents of West Shokan and Olivebridge had decided they didn’t like the new construction of the sewage system and treatment plant being built along Route 28, and they were threatening to break off relations with Boiceville!

That’s how crazy living in Israel can be. But, internally, Israel can be crazy, too.

Just the other day, driving through a field the scene was so beautiful that I felt as though I could stay here forever. The fields stretching before me were brilliantly green from the recent rains we’ve had, and ancient cypress trees were waving gently next to the ruins of a house that had been empty since the Turkish occupation. It was a moment so pure that I wished it could last forever.

Ten minutes later I was trying to find a parking space at the Super Sol supermarket in Nes Ziyyona. Parking in a busy supermarket lot in Israel is a lot like the old bumper car ride in Coney Island: they’ll hit you, drive over an abandoned cart, or go over the curbs, just to get that last space. I found it so maddening that I gave up and decided to drive back to the Super Sol in Rehovot, where the parking lot was so big I knew I’d at least find a space … and survive the experience! Forget about the fact that it took me 10 minutes to get out of the lot.

Later I was in our local branch of Stematsky’s Bookstore (the Israeli equivalent of Barnes & Noble) trying to buy two English language newspapers, which ended up taking me 25 minutes! One woman held up at least a dozen of us, while she had at least 20 books gift-wrapped by the single harried clerk. By the time I finally staggered out of Stematsky’s, I was ready to fly back to the States, right that moment!

But here we are up north, where the pace is slower and people are less hassled, which is ironic when you think about it. The people who live in this area (several nearby Israeli Arab and Druse villages included) have been on the receiving end of periodic rockets and shells from Lebanon for more than three decades. Yet they carry on their lives in regular fashion: kids play in yards, mothers wheel strollers, merchants peddle their wares, growers pick their apples.

You want to know the craziest thing of it all? Tonight we’re going to watch a hockey game at the rink in nearby Metullah, which is two minutes away from the “Good Fence” border crossing into Lebanon!

Shirley Fischler lives in Boiceville and New York City. Her column appears each Saturday in the Life Section.
16. danny | November 21st, 2009 at 9:09 pm

13>>Darwish,

In the event of a castrophic Israeli assault on Lebanon; the Shiites have to decide whether to stay with HA’s Persian masters or protect their Lebanese identity…Either way in case of a conflict do not fool yourself that HA will survive or there will not be a civil war! They will be cut off from all sides and totally decimated! These are facts my man; not mike’s fiction! that is the reason HA will NEVER antagonize Israel again…Just will keep up the empty rhetoric, barking and chest thumping!
17. danny | November 21st, 2009 at 9:10 pm

*catastrophic
18. Mike | November 21st, 2009 at 11:11 pm

All this in occupied Palestine. I sometimes wonder how the world would be if the zionists never moved you bunch and took away our neighbors land. Peace and stability at its best.
19. avi | November 22nd, 2009 at 1:58 am

Well Mike 18 fiction again it is actually the Jews that wanted to come back for their own liberation not the world that gave anything……
20. Mike | November 23rd, 2009 at 3:50 am

Jews can create a state when the messiah comes.
21. avi | November 23rd, 2009 at 10:28 am

Jews don’t need your approval Mike it is called self determination and freedom!
22. Mike | November 24th, 2009 at 8:16 am

Alright if you want to call it that concerning what israel is doing then don’t call yourselves jews and disgrace the religion.
23. avi | November 29th, 2009 at 1:40 am

What disgrace to my religion???Since when do you accept that we have a common religion??Or a common blood,the one of the hebrews!
24. Mike | November 29th, 2009 at 3:37 am

You are not following your religion as you claim to be. You are mixing zionism with judiasm. It is like mixing up christianity with nazism. You have no proof of originating from Palestine. Since jews moved to palestine from the iraq area then you are probably one of the jews who never moved there and lived in iraq till the day your grandparents moved to israel. Also, judiasm is a religon and not a race. Even the maronites in Lebanon who lived in this area for centuries have assyrian, phoenician, european and even arab tribal backgrounds. So don’t give me this bullcrap that the jews from russia, poland, iraq, canada and etc having the same blood and origin from palestine. It’s all unfounded.