The other day, while reading an article about the possibility of usage of the 7th chapter to implement the International Court, in case all efforts towards the normal implementation should fail, I began to see a very interesting point…what if the 7th chapter was one of the goals of HA instead of being something they would dread??? 
Was it possible that they would be seeking such a dramatic twist of events???
Well the answer is quite simple, and one has to look back in the history of this armed faction for it…
Ever since the late 1970s, Hezbollah has come to be as a resistance group, fighting street wars and guerilla style… For close to two decades, they have made their name and earned their reputation as well as the respect of the Shiites as a military group fighting against their oppressors and foreigners who invaded their lands.
They are not politicians. Everyday diplomacy and routine politics (the kind you would find in a “normal” country) are not what they are good at and henceforth, they see the establishment of any semblance of order in Lebanon as an end to their existence…

Hezbollah thrives on conflicts…the bloodier, the more they are given to appear as the underdog fighting against the West and its satanic influences, the best it is for them…You can say that war is their sole “raison d’etre”. This has its roots in both the Shiite mentality and concepts of seeking redemption through martyrdom as well as Hezbollah’s history….they saw what happened to Amal when it moved its activities towards politics and gradually withdrew from armed struggle…and they are absolutely unwilling to repeat this.

Plus, Hezbollah’s funding comes with a very big price tag: it has to continue existing as an armed group capable of extending the Iranian arm to strike USA or USA’s allies in the Middle East (aka Israel) whenever this is needed…Think of Hezbollah as some kind of insurance policy for Iran against any rash USA decision.
All the above tell you why Hezbollah will never seek the establishment of a government and peace in the country.
Now to go back to the usage of the 7th chapter in implementing the International Court…What does this mean? Well it means that force can be used to implement the court. Military force that is… and more specifically, the military force provided by the UN soldiers stationed in Lebanon.
Hezbollah won’t mind it at all because this would allow it to take up arms again, this time against the UN soldiers, and therefore continue doing what it does best: fight.
Any one who heard Naiim Quassem’s speech yesterday will tell you that it was full of threats towards the UN… I believe that Hezbollah cadres are starting to prepare their follower’s mentality to see the UN troops as possible targets…the talk about spying for Israel is the highest degree in an insult from HA and represents the ultimate sacrilege in the eyes of their followers…
Two possible results could come out of targeting the UN soldiers: 

1-     Eruption of a massive conflict…a conflict that HA, that has greatly recuperated and rearmed from the July war against Israel, are more than likely able to survive for a long enough period to wreck havoc in the international court as well as in the country to push away the bitter cup of surrendering their weapons… and once conflict has erupted, the sky is the limit as to its ramifications and the directions in which it spreads…
2-     A second, although distant possibility, would be the UN reacting in the same way the US reacted following the bombing of its barracks in mid 80s by the same Hezbollah: pack up and go…result? Hezbollah goes back south of Litani, and we are back to square one…
Both scenarios would not harm Hezbollah in any way, contrary to an establishment of peace and order in Lebanon which would lead to their disarmament and therefore the beginning of the end.

The above analysis, should it become reality, scares me very much for the future of this country, but it would not surprise me at all knowing the real nature of a movement like Hezbollah as well as their targets and goals for the country.
No sane person would believe that a party who wishes the country the best it can have would embark on a major conflict like the July war given the regional and international setup at that time…or even stage protests like the current ones in Downtown beirut to kill all aspects of economic life and weaken the country even further…

 




1 Comment. Add your own...

  • 1. Christian Atta | January 11th, 2007 at 1:44 pm

    Very insightful post, Othello, and accurate analysis!!



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