Today, after thirty six days of intensive fighting, a cease fire was finally enforced…Great…but I guess the main question now is, where do we go from here?

According to UN Resolution 1701 that was accepted by both Israeli and Lebanese governments, UN troops will deploy to replace Israeli forces, and behind the UN, there will be Lebanese Soldiers…and Hezbollah in all that? Well they are supposed to give up their weapons and head north of the Litani river…and they lived happily ever after one might conclude…but I am afraid not…Iran doesn’t see it in this way…On Sunday there were voices from Iran speaking against the disarmament of Hezbollah…in case the reader wonders why Iran is so hyper about seeing the party of god remain in action, the reader will have to recall that Iran has until August 30^th to scratch its nuclear program. So the bet is it would be much harder for the west to threaten Iran when it is pulling the strings of Hezbollah in South Lebanon. This is why so many cronies of the party of god in Lebanon, rushed yesterday to buy out more time: they started talking in the pure Arabic tradition, about talks and discussions and “resolving the issue between us”.

So things are a little more complicated than they appear at first glance.

The Lebanese government runs a very great risk of falling into a vicious circle :

• The UN troops will not deploy if Hezbollah is still armed.
• The Lebanese Army will not deploy if the UN troops don’t
• Israel will not retreat if the area is not secured by both the Lebanese army and the UN troops.
• Hezbollah is refusing to disarm as long as there are Israeli troops on Lebanese land.

Breaking this circle may prove somewhat difficult, and this would therefore place the Lebanese government in a very bad situation vis-à-vis the UN, as this would be the third resolution it fails to implement (1559 to 1701) and may also open the door for more Israeli attacks.

Israel would not be too angry if the 1701 was not upheld by the Lebanese as it would provide it with more excuses to remain in Lebanon, and finish their job. A victory over Hezbollah is all Israeli PM Olmert needs to turn the tables on the voices that have started to rise in his own backyard.

Back to the Lebanese scene…

A feeling shared by many Lebanese of all religions and of all walks of life is that failing to correctly deal with Hezbollah will be equivalent to laying the foundations for another war in the immediate future. This is causing many Lebanese to feel uneasy about coming back to Lebanon or investing in it. The same is felt by foreign investors who do not wish to have their investments blown up by an Israeli raid.

Moreover, not implementing UN Resolution 1701 could cause Lebanon to forfeit the financial aid and any help it would receive by member countries…needless to say that this money would make a great difference.

Now that the guns have stopped, reality will slowly come into focus. People will start to realize the extent of the damages, which, according to preliminary analysis is in the region of four billion US Dollars.

As winter season approaches, it will become harder to relocate the refugees back in their lands, since most of them have lost their homes. Leaving them in their current locations is also out of the question as most of these locations are public schools, which have been transformed into make shift refugee centers…Schools in Lebanon start around September.

As they have shown courage on the battle field, they should now show courage out of it. I believe Hezbollah should stop hiding behind excuses and it should realise that those supporting it locally, from Aoun to Lahoud to all the so called pro-arab parties that were in fact Syrias cronies in Lebanon are in fact looking for a free ride to power.

As they were previously questioning, at any cross point, the loyalty of the government towards Lebanon and the resistance, today the Lebanese themselves are questioning the Hezeb’s loyality to Lebanon.