Who will strike First ?
Posted by N10452I was having one of those endless political discussions with a friend of mine, arguing about the US policy in the Middle East, Iran’s intentions etc .. until we were interrupted by a 40-50 year old man who was dining with his wife.
Apparently, he lives in the US and is here on vacation, and follows thouroughly US & Middle East politics, he talked to us about a possible scenario of US launching a surprise attack on Iran during the last week of Easter.
Why is Iran a real threat to the Americans ?
He got us back few years ago when Iran showed its new military speed boats, and how those boats could be used to blow a very strategic and vital oil pipeline coming from KSA and Arab countries. This will cause a general economic crisis and will also affect the Arab countries.
It was a very interesting theory that i havent thought of or read anywhere in the news before, i need to research those boats and this pipeline. I will keep you updated if i find anything.
The man kept apologizing for interrupting us lol, even though we enjoyed his talks .. Whats funny is that we reached one conclusion, that Lebanon is screwed if any of those scenarios occur lol
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1. DJUAN | March 25th, 2007 at 5:18 am
10452;Why is Iran a real threat to the Americans ?
w saret min abel .
there is tons of reasons regarding this matter , and why americans wont dare to attack iran at this time;
1, usa backed sadam for 8 yr ,and the conclusion was backfire on them ,they couldnt achieve any goals (iran held) and sadam invaded kuwait after etc…. always remember it was 80’s ! iran =2007 way stronger .
2, iran = russia (cold war) + (chechnya war) russians didnt forget yet the american support for bin laden and allies agaisnt the russian army! ALBON M7ABAL MINON as you can see on tv , vlademir poutin is raising the heat agaisnt the us !!! ouh?
3, Gas prices , americans are suffering daily because of the high gas prices, any dumb desicion by bush’s admst will lead to a new depression (americans can’t afford wars anymore ) Trust me , they had enough ,ppl are suffering in here (check their news ).
4, Situation in iraq is corrupted . Also, shi3 are not fighting yet! What if they do? Do the math; 15 million against 150,000 americans troops? oupsss… they are having hard time fighting the sunni minority ! http://www.times.com
Tons of reasons ou there , let’s watch and see. Thank you ouwetjiye w la2we tchido dahrkon fiyon la2ino isa sar ma sar ma ra7 totla3 ila birasskon w rass al libneniye
2. LebExile | March 25th, 2007 at 7:02 am
I dont think Lebanon will be screwed in any scenario - the only scenario where I think Lebanon might get screwed is if America attacks Iran, and Iran defeats America - and we all know the chances of that.
Hezb-Iran in Lebanon is like a scarecrow - it is used solely to scare the west - hey - you attack Iran and we will unleash Hezb-Iran on Israel, however, after the July Hassouna war, and the 14,000 or so peacekeepers in south Lebanon, Hezb-Iran is weaker than ever. They even have to exaggerate the number of rockets they have - when have you ever seen them do that before. A truck load of rockets, rifles and bombs was recently confiscated, ad all they could do is bark a little - their allies the SSNP and palestinian camps are getting arrested left right and center, and they cant do anything about it.
The strategy the Lebanesee government is using is work and develop the souther Lebanon, help the local population move on without Hezb-Iran - which they are doing fine, and this will further erode the credibility of Hezb-Iran. On top of that, make sure the sit in in downtown Beirut goes on for as long as possible, and let the those participating in it learn the hard way that the Hezb-Iran will not be able to force their ideas on the rest of the Lebanese. This will have the effect of weakening the morale of those sitting and waiting in the tents, as well as costing Hezb-Iran who is paying them daily to sit there.
The Lebanese at the end of this will get rid of Hezb-iran - and more importantly, they will get rid of them without a civil war and bloodshed.
I know it is painful to the average Lebanese, they are suffering, businesses are closing, people are losing their jobs, and the current situation is tough, but, you have to remember, the shia are held hostage just like the rest of the Lebanese, and this will be a big relief to them once it is all over as well.
3. DJUAN | March 25th, 2007 at 9:49 am
chabeb ana hala2 3m bi7dar LBC live ino leh NOHAD AL MACHNOU2 (hariri rep) 3m bibahdil fikon hek? WLOO?W HAYDA GEORGE ADWEN ON THE PHONE KAMAN, im happy ino talfan (good job )….3yb walla 3yb …
i will really preciate it ,if you post it 10452 !
THAT IS F***ED UP , w deb al talej ya proud to be lebanese and SMS .
Enjoy your allies OTHELLO. Mohammed chu hala2? ya ret fiye talfin w bahdlo bass ….
4. rachelle | March 25th, 2007 at 11:51 am
djuan 3al alile yelle 3am b bahdil fina ( eza ken 3am b bahdil fina ) manno menna w fina … have u heard feyiz el aze 2 weeks ago chou 7eke 3an el fpm w 3an el general…. el talej deb men zamen ya djuan bs 3a jbelkoun mech jbelna .. 3ena el talej ma b doub …
5. Mohammad | March 25th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
DJUAN,



OK, Sma3 ta2ellak
1- Nohad Al Mashno2 was kicked out of Harir group before 2005 elections and so he is not Hariri rep.
2- He is currently am ordinary writer in Al Safir Newspaper and you know what is Al Safir with respect to 14 march. He has to attack us from time to time to keep his job
3- Who said that if anybody attacked 14 march then he should be against them? Sometimes you have to attack YOURSELF when you do mistakes!
We are humans and we do make mistakes but what makes us different is that we admit that we do mistakes while OTHERS claim that they are DIVINE, THE ONLY ANGELS… THE ONLY PRESIDENT… THE ONLY CLEAN…THE FIRST TO SAY…etc.
Ya DJUAN, this is democracy and NOT MILITARY country (Naffez thom e3tared)
Yalla, NEXT
6. S.M.S. | March 26th, 2007 at 12:14 am
????!!! at DJUAN’s comment. La2 af7amtani al2an , too bad that Mohammad’s response says it all.
7. rene | March 26th, 2007 at 3:34 am
Djuan ;You are smart, educated and mean at the same time.
You 90% right regarding your post ,but remember that russian will not get down with the game.
Mohamed+rachele ; Djuan is more realistic than you. At the same time , He acts like his general.
Lebanon is a great country to visit. nchala i go there one day. http://www.unitedforpeace.org this is better ya mr djuan .
8. DJUAN | March 26th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
MOHAMED ; wae2if ta 2ilak , GEORGE 3DWEN mich iben al yom , otherwise ma ken byitro2 telefon SUNDAY morning , lesh hek bitlifo w bitdouro?! lesh mfakrin al 3lam habla? Enough is enough ,and plz stop hiding behind your THUMB! Your 14th of march is UNREAL.
RACHELLE; As mohamed said this is democracy, ba3den chu hayda MINA W FINA ? LEH MIN INTO ? hayda balad ma bi2oum ila 3la united government ! Zaman ni7na w into ra7 ….ra7it ayem al ouwet albe …. ouwet bil BRAZIL ARE STRONGER THAN OUWET BI LEBENEN ,FACE IT BABY …
SMS ; If you want attention and appreciation ,you must learn to give attention and appreciation ! 7ARIRIST KINGDOM WILL GIVE $$$$ , w yalli BYICHTRIK BIBI3K ,be carefull.
Rene ; thx for the website, are you an X ouwet? I wish i can be like my general , by the way you might be right about the RUSSIANS , i have to look @ that…
thank you falles….latter..
9. S.M.S. | March 26th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
DJUAN’s comments have no substance, they smack of vindinctiveness and desperation!!! Thank you for the wake up call dude, yes you do act like your general.
10. DJUAN | March 26th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
Desperation? lool !
S.M.S ; You dont judge a book for its look.
You can study psy ,but dont become crazy plz
Again, dont blame others for your failure. Also, know your value and where you stand , ni7na chu khassna iza into GHLOTO W 3M TOGHLATO 3N JDID? ino leh GMA li kassrkon mich your internal conflict? leh kell al 7a2 3la GMA? ba3den inte leh ma3ssbe ya albe? you should be acting better for your career ! Learning to deal with your anger and the anger of other ppl is one of the most sophisticated and mature skills ppl are never REQUIRED to learn . so LEARN banout …
latter , try harder ……
11. Mohammad | March 27th, 2007 at 9:11 am
DJUAN,
Iza kteer metdeya2 mn Hariri money, let me remind you that a lot of Fpm students, entered universities because of Hariri money!
NONE of 14 march leaders needs Hariri money to be Lebanese while others need “Al Mal Al Nazeef” to be Iranian and others were caught in Airport in 1990 with a suitcase FULL of DOLLARS! Do you remeber?????????
12. S.M.S. | March 27th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Having an exchange with an FPMer, whether in real life or online, is like paying penance for my past sins. All of us have our crazy side, and I guess mine showed in actually trying to attempt an intelligent exchange(where you don’t go, INTO, HARRIRSTAN, ISRAEL LOVERS, YOU ARE MAKING MISTAKES) with you DJUAN.
I do have a lot to learn, a lot, and I still have a long life to do it.
13. DJUAN | March 28th, 2007 at 2:21 am
MOHAMMAD; Hush , dont you even make me go there otherwise i will….hariri’s money ? You meant 7arir’s DEBT? 40 billion $ debt !!! Or the corrupted government back then? Lebanese ppl had enough of you (chek previous bassmet watan ) ken issmon moni3 fi loubnan….
Suitcases full of $$ back in 1990 !! so what? no big deal ( 3lanan 3l makchuf ) …
Lot of FPM entered uni because of hariri money? LOT OF LEBANESE BRAINS LEFT LEBANON BECAUSE OF YOUR SANIOURA’S TAXES BACK THEN ! TAFARTO AL 3LAM….
Do you remeber?????????
latterrrr
14. DJUAN | March 28th, 2007 at 2:32 am
Bokra jeye elections w bibalich fat al massare ? lek bi2dech al sot (vote) bi tari2 al jdide and akar? 3la ayeme ken 50 $ hala2 adech sar??? li btichtri bibi3k ya abu hmed..Ma bisso7 ila al sa7i7 ..
AOUN ; 3wnak min 3ind allah min fo2 ya abu 2id ndife..ALLAH YI7MIK W YKAHLIK FO2 RASSNA .
thank you hamedo , no fan by the way
15. proud 2 b lf | March 28th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
djuan…ma 2ele jelde redd 3lek….bas l taljet ma debo…ba3ed fik tetla3 3al talej…..w 3on bi 7ayeto mara7 ysir ra2is joumhouriyye bidoun ma ybous (bad word) l 3alam klla…lol..ya3ne betsiro kbar ba3ed ma twatto 7alkon ktir….ya3ne law 3on ken benet shou ken baddo ya3te 3ammo 7assan ta ysir ra2is joumhouriyye???lol…..be3te2ed 2enno ken bifaddel ykoun benet…hek btsir l 2essa ashal…lol….
16. DJUAN | March 29th, 2007 at 6:49 am
Proud ; thx for replying…
17. DJUAN | March 29th, 2007 at 6:49 am
Proud ; thx for replying… fakaret ma ilak jlede ken…..
18. Mohammad | March 29th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
DJUAN,
Ya3ni sho baddi ellek, you close yor eyes and at the same time you want to see, how come?
40 billion dollar! Baddak ta3ref mn wean? ok
1- Da7yeh kella w 90% of south, don’t pay electricity
2- 7arbel ta7rer w 7arb el elgha2 cost
3- 15 years civil war
4- Sa7bak Rostom ghazaeleh wl mokhabarat el soreyyeh
5- Monthly financial Support to HA by force from the Syrian regime.
6- COST of ASAD Family taken directly from Casino Lebnen.
7-8-9-……. mn Halla2 la bokra bdal 3eddelak.
Bas yally inta ma baddak tshofo, sho Jab la Lebanon fom Paris 1,2,3 to the continuos support from KSA (Yalli inta mesh 3m befham lesh kteer maz3ooj menna) to Asian Cup to international support to to to to …..
3ayb n7ammel el Hariri 40 billion la2anno lawla el Hariri assasination kent b3emrak ma sheft el GMA taba3ak.
You are in democratic country where you can speak whatever you want but don’t use FAKE information (walaw ma into sha3b lobnan 3l 3azeem )
19. Mohammad | March 29th, 2007 at 8:31 pm
DJUAN,
Ya3ni sho baddi ellek, you close yor eyes and at the same time you want to see, how come?
40 billion dollar! Baddak ta3ref mn wean? ok
1- Da7yeh kella w 90% of south, don’t pay electricity
2- 7arbel ta7rer w 7arb el elgha2 cost
3- 15 years civil war
4- Sa7bak Rostom ghazaeleh wl mokhabarat el soreyyeh
5- Monthly financial Support to HA by force from the Syrian system.
6- COST of ASAD Family taken directly from Casino Lebnen.
7-8-9-……. mn Halla2 la bokra bdal 3eddelak.
Bas yally inta ma baddak tshofo, sho Jab la Lebanon fom Paris 1,2,3 to the continuos support from KSA (Yalli inta mesh 3m befham lesh kteer maz3ooj menna) to Asian Cup to international support to to to to …..
3ayb n7ammel el Hariri 40 billion la2anno lawla el Hariri assasination kent b3emrak ma sheft el GMA taba3ak.
You are in democratic country where you can speak whatever you want but don’t use FAKE information (walaw ma into sha3b lobnan 3l 3azeem )
20. DJUAN | March 30th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
MOHAMED; Whatever man….. ana b3idilak min hala2 la next month chu 3mal al 7ariri bil hal balad ,bass lek houwe mayit hala2 w ana ma b7eb i7ke 3la ness maytin.
i know hiye hara2 bi alak (hariri death) w 7ara2 bi albe ana kaman ! bass lek fi tissa2l ass7abak al ARABS min li atalo la hariri , nya3rfo bass ma 7abo yot3malo ma3 JUDGE BRAMETZ !? RIGHT?
Also, I dont have any prb with KSA,but we have issues regarding their support for an illegal government. KSA are not democratic , so why PLAYING DEMOCRATIC RULES? Fouad sanioura is the biggest coward i ‘v ever seen , he failed as minister w hala2 SAR RA2ISS 7OUKOUME ?! I advice him to go and see a therapist so he wont cry in public anymore ….SHAME!
per you;lawla el Hariri assasination kent b3emrak ma sheft el GMA taba3ak ; these are fake informations
THX
21. Mohammad | March 30th, 2007 at 8:26 pm
Don’t worry DJUAN, We will all know who did those crimes starting from Marwan till Pierre after we knew “3ayn 3alaq”. ALLAH Kbeer.
22. The Perfect Plot for WW3 &hellip | April 4th, 2007 at 5:36 am
[...] posted earlier asking who will strike first ? Well Israel apparently is gonna be the one to strike first, at least according to several articles [...]
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