Countdown to $200
Posted by N10452Oil prices are going only in one direction nowadays, and the barrel is reaching unimaginable prices ..
This inflation of oil prices is effecting the whole world, and majorily affecting the poorer parts of the world therefore causing them to limit their consumption.
Why is this happening ?
There are tons of explanations, some claim USA & Israel planned it, others blame it on fast-growing economies in Asia ( mainly China) etc …
However the main problem is that Oil production has been flat for the past 3 years, meaning that no supply growth is occuring and this will obviously reflect negatively on the oil prices.
Here are some logical reasons exposed in an article i read
Where are we heading ? the EU threatened to start considering taking some measures if the oil barrel keeps rising that way ( until 150$).
The US is filling its reserves and everyone seems to be waiting for that crisis to open.
The points i linked to above reflect the whole idea, and show us that inflation is still on its way and there is nothing to do …
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15 Comments. Add your own...
1. bashirist for life | June 11th, 2008 at 2:17 am
Oil fell sharply on Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it was taking aim at inflation, triggering a rebound in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off across commodities markets.
“Crude is down basically as the dollar is taking off after Bernanke’s remarks, which sparked some profit-taking,” .
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday the central bank would “strongly resist” inflation, cementing views that interest rates will rise later this year. The head of Brazilian oil company Petrobras said on Tuesday that he expected oil prices to keep rising over the next five years as producers face limitations on boosting output to meet rising Asian demand
2. Fuziyad | June 11th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Very interesting non-lebanese politics related issue brought N….
I am a commodity trader, I don’t think supply and demand on oil justify such prices it just gives a good enough reason for many speculators to jump in a start buying virtual oil like there was no tomorrow. All this buying that pushed the prices above 100$ made people panick and broke the taboo of an oil at 100$ which was seen as the peak before.
Anyway my feeling is that we’re close from the end of the move but oil shoudl still keep that panic premium an remain above 100.
An oil above 150 changes the planet, the western economies will suffer a great deal. Also on the long run, too high prices doesn’t suit the OPEC guys as people will start looking at developping alternatives to oil and will also start digging in the northern reserves be it in russia, norway or canada where the high cost of extraction is for now limiting production (but it won’t with an oil above 150!)
For Lebanon, all the excess of cash in the hands of oil producing guys is of course dangerous, first and foremost as Iran will have even more money to throw on its lebanese puppets. This can be countered by some saudi money but the saudis don’t seem interested in the investmenet for now…also eventhough this could help out briefly at the end saudis will proabbly look into buying lebanon once they have spent enough money on them.
I read that with oil at 200$ the wealth of the royal families of the 6 gulf countries will amount twice as much as the total world equities, if they can buy the whole world why not buying lebanon once…
Bottom line, high oil prices will change the face of the world and in particular of this region, lebanon should make sure it benefits rather than being eaten up by all this surrounding wealth
3. Rodge | June 11th, 2008 at 11:11 am
N10452,
There is no short in Oil supply despite the big demand. What is happening is a result of a big conflict between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the IEA (International Energy Agency), which represents a conflict between the US and Europe from one side, and the big Oil producers from the other side, knowing that those producers include Iran, Venezuela, and other countries that have bad relations with the US.
It is more complicated than a matter of demand and supply, mainly with the evolution of the BioFuel.
But again, it could be just a phase, since yesterday I just read a report published in “Fortune” Magazine, in which they expected Oil prices to retreat again to 50$, similar to what happened few years ago to the Houses sector in US.
Some time soon, supply will exceed demand, especially with the new technologies used for a clean energy.
4. Rodge | June 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
I have a proposal,
Why don’t we rest from Politics and other problematic issues, and discuss soccer for a change, since it’s the Euro 2008 now, and stakes are high.
Let me open the challenges, I’m a German fan, and I see my team as the next CHAMPION
GO MANSCHAFT
5. Fuziyad | June 11th, 2008 at 11:51 am
MANSCHAFT??????????? mbayyan kataebé enta
I support France, allez les bleus but really doubt they will make it.
Also supporting my national swiss team and hoping the beat the hell out of the turks tonight but again, I am not that confident..
For the rest as long as it’s not germany or italy that wins it, it should ell be fine
6. ali | June 11th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Worldwide demand for oil has only grown by 1% since January of 2007, yet the price of a barrel of oil has nearly tripled.
The primary cause of this outrageous spike in oil cost is due to speculation. It’s that simple.
7. paul | June 11th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
finally someone interested in soccer.
Rodge, i think the final is between Germany and Portugal.
Fuziad
France kann schon jetzt nach Hause fahren
8. VOR | June 11th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Well said ali. Speculation is leading to these outrageous price hikes. It accounts for 25% of the rise of price and the rest is simply a higher demand at this time than supply is able to meet. Eventually, it will come down a bit and rest at a price where market dynamics will be satisfied. It is ridiculous that we are at this stage but there is much hypocrisy in this whole thing and there are some people that are making a killing in profits at the expense of the less fortunate….what a great world we do live in, to just put in some sarcasm to this story.
9. VOR | June 11th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
I meant to say speculation accounts for 75% of the rise in price.
10. Mickel | June 11th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Since we’re talking about soccer, I also think that Germany and Portugal will be the finalists.
And by the way na3iman to all the Italy fans for getting spanked by the Deutch!
11. Tarek | June 11th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
We’re heading for a third world war.
12. M.N. | June 11th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Paul and Mickel
Portugal and Germany can never meet in the finals..
they will meet in the quarter or in the semi final…
anyway i don’t think the german team can do anything in this tournament…
for me i wish that Spain will win this time but till now the best football team in the Euro is Netherland.
13. paul | June 11th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
M.N.
you´re absolutely right,I thought portugal is in the C group.
Spain is dangerous,and i think netherland was strong because Italy was weak.
14. Rodge | June 12th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Good to see some soccer challenges.
It’s a good change.
M.N. Spain looks strong, but as usual, when they arrive to the serious stuff they will fail.
We have 2 pools now, and looking to the first results, we can imagine Germany - Portugal in one side of the semis, Hiolland - Spain in the other side, but as all the Soccer fans know, things can change dramatically, and previous experiences proove that.
Just look back at the 2006 WC finalists, Italy and France, they didn’t convince during their games in the first round, but yet they took it to the end.
15. M.N. | June 12th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
well Rodge i hope this time it’ll be different for Spain…
Paul even maybe Italy were not so strong but Netherland were really great in that game…they really played beautiful football…
As i said “till now” and anything can happen.. not only the previous WC, look at the previous Euro..Greece won…
anyway we just saw 1 game for each time…
Let’s wait several days.
Please Wait
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