How will Hezbollah respond ?
Posted by N10452What is happening today in Gaza is not simply a war on Hamas, but is more of a regional and local political & military card Ehud Barack (Israeli minister of defence) is playing, a card that will determine his chances of winning the upcoming Israeli elections in February 09.
Locally (Israel), fights between Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Barak are all over the Israeli papers along with the Gaza Operation reports. Olmert is “unofficially” no more in charge as Livni took control of the party’s commands and Barak is leading a war that Olmert cannot allow himself to stop.
The outcome of Gaza, specially if the IDF were to invade it, is crucial on Israel in general and on Barak’s future. Another failure like the one in Lebanon is unacceptable knowing that Barak reached the highest military ranks in the Israeli army and has an impeccable career.
Regionally speaking, Barak is as confused as we all are on the Hezbollah reaction to the Gaza operation. I am quite sure he prepared multiple contingency plans but he will be fighting the unknown as no one knows how well prepared Hezbollah is and how improved are their missiles and weapons. One thing however is for sure, is that Israel is highly prepared for a regional multi-fronts war and wants to regain its reputation at any price.
Hezbollah-wise, its leadership is facing a crucial strategic decision, as engaging in another war with Israel will relief Hamas but will reflect very negatively on Lebanon which Israel plans to destroy completly without any exception if Hezbollah is to attack.
The highly unpopular July war, despite the fake “Victory” Hezbollah pretends to have achieved, definitly is making HA’s leadership reconsider any move and the surprising events and speeches Nasrallah is giving (3 days in a row) and the terrorist party is organizing are only diversion to gain time, not to mention the unusual and unprecedented speech Nasrallah gave asking Egyptians to demonstrate against their government.
Why waste time ?
Because Iran & Syria are confused on what to do next and dont want to risk their only card against Israel, meaning Hezbollah.
Israel cannot bare another military failure, Barak cannot bare another political failure and Hezbollah cannot risk losing its Syrian & Iranian support in case it failed to counter the Israeli offensive.
A quite interesting situation that will surely take weeks, if not months before we know its outcome.
Search
Who posts here
Sections
- Home
Bashir Gemayel (45)
Caricatures (27)
Contributors (11)
Critiques (540)
Economical (7)
Editorials (243)
Elections 09 (130)
Ethics & Religion (56)
Events (98)
Gebran Tueni (11)
Humor (417)
Information (321)
LBC News (169)
Lebanon (1787)
Movies (55)
News (433)
Other (369)
Personal Opinions (194)
Political (1056)
Political Islam (43)
Predictions (7)
Regional Politics (114)
Social (38)
World News & Politics (128)
Other LF Sites
Site Tools
Recent Comments
- Alyssa: Ofourse non of them (yes I even include Hariri, Sinoura and that whole side) want it because non of them want a powerful Christian community here only a divided or political dhimmitude one (which is whats...
Reminder: alyssa who will elect such a president? would harriri accept? hezbollah and berri accept? would JUMBLAT accept? you have to strike a bargain with them…tit for tat..quid pro quo… we get to elect...
Alyssa: *and speak about REAL the concerns the people has and have a backbone, rather than say what the Arabs want to hear.
Alyssa: Reminder, I do agree with you signing the Taef was a mistake but as many would say it was a mistake we had no choice to sign. The actions of Lahoud during his illegal presidency were digusting and inexcusable....
Reminder: bein an FPMer one would think that i would like to bash the president esp aafter what he did during the elections, opposing aoun… however i would like to remind my LF brothers to dial it down on...
Alyssa: I actually agree with Wahab regarding Sleiman (i know very strange), Suleiman should resign, he has no statemenship skills whatsover,if you asked people who is the president of Lebanon, (im talking about non...
paul: at least the man is honest,he speek accordig to…A-one’s…w ishes.
Reminder: hochoz he is not! wi2am wahab is an idiot an agent an impolite piece of shit and a disgrace to lebanese…. the guy is a comedian not a politician! yes of course i enjoy listening to him but thats only...
Che: Wi’am Wahhab epitomizes the stinkiest rubbish on planet. Such a scum worm!
Mickel: Did the president select him to be on the “Dialogue table?” If not, then that’s probably why he’s mad.
He’s just gonna go back to printing stuff off the Internet now. :p
Related Entries
14 Comments. Add your own...
1. gk | January 2nd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
I will tell you what Kizballah will do.
1. Will continue its talk and speech until Israelis become sick of hearing his screaming and ALL Israelis will die!
2. Will get the order to repeat what Syria said: “We have the right to retaliate at the appropriate time and place and with the methods that we decide!”
3. Nassallah will invite more wowen and old people accompanied with their children and grand-children to smoke argeileh on the roof of the building where he hides in its basement.
4. Will get a messgae from Iran saying: “We need 6 more months to have our nuclear bomb ready, so try to pass more weapons to Gaza to keep fighting for 6 more months!”
2. THERESINIA | January 2nd, 2009 at 6:18 pm
whatever the reasons, Whatever the situation; It will be a CRIME to mislead Lebanon into a new WAR!!!
3. F.A | January 2nd, 2009 at 8:08 pm
it is realy a tricky situation…
israel got support from egypt, and probably from syria too to take over gazza from hamas and deliver it to abbas….
Israel had a harsh defeat in Lebanon, and they do look weak in the eyes of many israelies and others…
I think this war has a double objective, which is to finish once and for all hamas terrorist and to gain more power inside israel.
hassouna said, it is all abt time, if u can hide and wait, israel might stop and this is a win for hamas.
I don’t think israel will launch another war on lebanon,at least not for now…
well let’s wait and see.
4. THERESINIA | January 2nd, 2009 at 8:26 pm
May be the great Hannibal, the mythical Nabuchodonosor, the legendary Cesar, the famous Churchill, the fabulous De Gaulle, the new St Paul, the tremendous NapoleAOUN, the incredible CROWCANBEEK, has calculated all the stratregies and is NOW preparing to launch the “people resistance”, with small pockets and tiny cells from every little valley, each hilly grotto, and all other small forests and clusters to drive the GOLIATH into the mother of all wars… and of course… become the greatest winner of all times, the one who HISTORY will remember as changing the face of the earth!
5. THERESINIA | January 2nd, 2009 at 8:32 pm
Of course I am serious!!!! and only a little bit ironic, cynic and sarcastic.
6. Mickel | January 2nd, 2009 at 10:55 pm
This whole thing is unfolding in a very interesting way.
The Israelis, high with election fever, are trying to show their people that they’re tough.
But even if — or when — they invade Gaza, they cannot erase HAMAS.
This is because of the glass-half-full strategy that the Arabs have, so even if only one building remains standing in Gaza, HAMAS will claim that they won because the Israelis couldn’t bomb that building.
Now for what Hezbollah has to do with this:
I’m sure that Syria has sold HAMAS in its negotiations with Israel, and maybe Syria is against Hezbollah entering the war.
Because it looks like Hezbollah really wants to get in on this, but someone is stopping them.
I actually think that if Hezbollah attacks now, it will be good for us, election-wise because people will get sick and tired of their ways.
What I’m afraid of is if Hezbollah waits untill after the election to have a new war.
They will look peacefull now, try to win the election, and then have a war, after they have guaranteed their share in the parliament.
7. THERESINIA | January 3rd, 2009 at 12:19 am
MICKEL,
May I congratulate you on your analysis.
I really want to acknowledge your ability to explain the situation in a pragmatic way. Excellent!!!!
8. F.A | January 3rd, 2009 at 1:06 am
Mickel,
I don’t think HA needs any sympathy towards the elections… they have most of the chi3as behind them,and they do guarantee their positions.
Israel probably since the last war with HA till today are preparing well to face them, they surely did all their calculations before launching this war. which makes one wonders, what if HA also had struck a deal indirectly through syria with israel???
lots of things are changing very fast in the middle east, especially with the end of the Bush era…
9. Fuziyad | January 3rd, 2009 at 2:18 am
Right on spot Mickel
10. Mickel | January 3rd, 2009 at 2:56 am
F.A.
Hezbollah has the Shi’a vote locked up, there’s no question there.
But it’s in the Christian community that another war might cost Hezollah’s allies many votes.
11. F.A | January 3rd, 2009 at 10:37 am
Mickel,
If you ment Christian com. , i,e Aoun supporters(marad and others), well what we saw lately,that even when he went to syria and asked the lebanese to appologize from syria,they were still supporting him!!!!!
It is obvious that most of the Lebanese people are puppets,and they don’t follow a cause, but instead they follow a leader…
So Mickel, whatever HA will do, they will still have the same votes,unless one of the other leaders will turn against them.
Just imagine today Aoun will appear on TV and say: HA are terrorists and bla bla bla… what do u think will the orangies do?
12. THERESINIA | January 3rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Dear F.A.
My info is a lot different than yours. Many people have WOKE UP after the visit of the General of Rabiyeh to Syria. Rember I am still in contact with many pro-AOUN…many christians especially in Kesrwan have been deceived by him… and my feeling is that the man HIMSELF could not be elected in the Kesrwan. If he want to ascertain a parliament seat I would recommend that he becomes candidate in the SOUTH!!!!
13. Doc1559 | January 3rd, 2009 at 5:58 pm
No need to respond…
As in lebanon, Isreal should have learned years ago that the use of force cannot crush the resistance movements. Israel is now making the same mistake they made back in 06 !
Time will tell and time will also prove you wrong for the 1000 times in the past 30 yrs.
You can kill a man but you cannot kill the idea behind him.
14. F.A | January 3rd, 2009 at 6:48 pm
THERESINIA,
I hope you are right, I am away now (4 years) and unfortunately I have a cousin who is a real big time activist with the orangies, and I didn’t see that his way of thinking has changed.
But as I said, I hope the people woke up , but i dought it, well our answer will be soon in the elections.
Please Wait
Leave a Reply
Trackback this post | Subscribe to the comments via RSS Feed