Every 10 years or so, Christians of Lebanon face a new crisis and the result is most of the time a compromise on their rights and powers. This ‘Arabization’ or even ‘Islamization’ process that has been undergoing since 1958 is its most critical point today.

Christians are losing their 50-50 status bit by bit. They already lost it in the past elections whereas almost half of their MPs were elected by Muslim votes and the worst is still to come. If no electoral law is voted on preserving the 50-50, Hezbollah might ask for a 1/3 1/3 1/3 representation from now on ( HA has already approached this manner with foreign diplomats and local ones), thereby destroying Lebanon’s identity and arabizing the country.

The only year Christians had muscles and were in a position to secure their future was back in 1982, where Sheikh Bashir Gemayel had a clear vision of our future, a clear program to implement and a local, regional & international support. Unfortunatelly, what was looking like a dream come true for us turned into a nightmare when Bash was assassinated.

Today Christian leaders ( Samir Geagea & Michel Aoun) are faced with a life-time challenge, either agreeing on electing a strong president or disagreeing and therefore compromising and electing a weak president. History will judge both men for their positions, specifically Michel Aoun and his stubborness.

You ask me is Michel Aoun a strong president ?

Michel Aoun obtained a large yet disputed majority in the past elections, however he signed an understanding with Hezbollah and therefore became dependant of HA’s policies, and will only harm Christians more if elected. Not only he violated the principles he defended for years while being in exile, but he lied to his voters and his people to gain their votes in 2005 ( Aoun’s party manifesto insisted HA should be disarmed and its weapons are illegal ( 2005 )).

As for Dr.Geagea, being in prison during the elections, his party only secured 5 seats, but he managed to reposition himself as a key element in the tri-alliance he signed with Jumblatt & Hariri.

As much as those alliances are unequilibred, both men can exploit their alliances in a positive manner and coordinate to come up with one president that will satisfy Christians’ demands, and not Hariri’s nor Hezbollah’s.

There is no room for compromise, and the only way out of this crisis ( in case both men dont agree) is for M14 to elect a strong Christian president from within their ranks, one that will abide by M14’s principles and force himself on Hezbollah and the Syrians.

I was expecting a president on the 23rd, and was very dissapointed M14 did not call for a session, however that might have been a smart move to let Lahoud end his term and avoid any stupid move from him, but now M14 must elect a president asap if Christian leaders dont reach an agreement.




23 Comments. Add your own...

  • 1. Charbel Gharios | November 25th, 2007 at 12:51 pm

    قال القطب الأبرز في الأكثرية المسيحية خلال اجتماع الفينيسيا مخاطباً القيادات الاسلامية في قوى 14 آذار: “إذا كنتم غير جاهزين لمواجهة “حزب الله”، فأنا جاهز لمواجهة ميشال عون”.(السفير)?????

  • 2. Shlomo | November 25th, 2007 at 1:17 pm

    I was expecting a president on the 23rd, and was very dissapointed M14 did not call for a session, however that might have been a smart move to let Lahoud end his term and avoid any stupid move from him, but now M14 must elect a president asap if Christian leaders dont reach an agreement.

    we all hope so, it is our last chance and hope. if they compromised on smthg that we dont agree on, then sitteen sini 3alayon, people should spit on them.

  • 3. YOU ALL NEED TO WAKE UP | November 25th, 2007 at 2:37 pm

    “the tri-alliance he signed with Jumblatt & Hariri”
    he shouldnt have signed with no one, i think hariri is working for the saudi’s and jimblatt
    is a coce head thats too high to know what hes doing, he needs to stop snorting them white lines and stop trippin out and twitching on lbc every afternoon when i turn my tv on.. there all fucked everyone is working for someone we need a change man and fast

  • 4. paul | November 25th, 2007 at 3:22 pm

    M14 must either continue the cedars revolution till the end, or accept a neutral president . if lebanon remains functional without a president, the christians must answer unpleasant questions for example,do we really need a president ?

  • 5. الله لا يردّك | November 25th, 2007 at 3:43 pm

    Hariri is working for the Saudies? what’s new?

    Anyway in this moment better saniora then Aoun, beleive me.

    I am shocked Sleiman didn’t play dirty yet. knowng that he is Syrian and Man of Lahoud.

  • 6. JoseyWales | November 25th, 2007 at 4:31 pm

    do we really need a president ?

    Good question, Paul.

    Anyway, what the Christians (and others) need to do in the long run is to figure out how to make Leb a good place to live, with a future.

    It is more important to convince/educate most Lebanese that the Leb/western approach works in Leb (and the Gulf) and that the confrontation/Hamas/Hezbo/Arab nationalism crap does not. (step one: stop repeating “mouqawama” land “sister Syria” like idiots, starting with Saniora and the gvmnt,and the army web site)

    That’s much more important than fighting over the crumbs of a weak state that shalll remain weak if people remain torn between war and peace, and between Lebanon and some Arab/Islamic fantasy.

    Ideas/vision are more important than who gets what post.

  • 7. gary | November 25th, 2007 at 4:57 pm

    maybe it is a good timing to speak about federalism or cofederalism it is the only way that the christian can secure there future & stop the emmigration & i think this idea is popular even with the aounist.
    a unified lebanon whith the same political system is recepie for disaster and i am thinking only about the demography 1o years from now.

  • 8. Roland | November 25th, 2007 at 5:10 pm

    ya N There hasn’t been a census since 1932..
    leh ade ba3d fi massi7iye blebnen ta ne7ke bi 50-50 ???? the beating heart of this nation, Christians, have become a minority. w ba3d 20-30 sene kif bikoon lebnen??

  • 9. Roland | November 25th, 2007 at 5:11 pm

    I am afraid HA 7a yebla3 lebnen kelo chi nhar..

  • 10. PAULETTE | November 25th, 2007 at 5:53 pm

    TO N10452. YOU ARE TALKING JEWELS THOSE DAYS.
    TO ROLAND.IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE SAME DESTINY OF CHRISTIANS IN LEBANON SINCE MUCH BEFORE THE OTTOMANS.SO DON’T BE AFRAID.THISIS OUR HOMELAND & WE ARE HERE TO STAY FOREVER.STOP THINKING AOUNIST.START THINKING AS A REAL CHRISTIAN RESISTANT WITHOUT BECOMING A RADICALIST EXTREMIST HATING EVERYONE ELSE.THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.AOUN IS BRINGING FEAR OF HA INTO THE HEART OF LEBANESE CHRISTIANS IN THE ONLY PURPOSE TO BECOME THE ONLY HERO THAT CAN SAVE THEM.ASK ANY FL’ER IF HE IS AFRAID OF THEM INSPITE OF THEIR WEAPONS.NO THEY’RE NOT ,BECAUSE,ONCE,THEY FOUGHT AGAINST PALESTINIANS,SYRIANS(WITH USA &ISRAEL SUPPORT) & MORE THAN THE HALF OF LEBANON,AND THE L.F. IS STILL HERE,& WILL STAY FOREVER. THE MOST IMPORTANT IS NOT TO BE AFRAID.ONCE WE ARE THEY CERTAINLY WIN .

  • 11. christian | November 25th, 2007 at 6:01 pm

    akid whe need a president …. eno mafi ghair l masihye w specialy l mouranite eklina hala2 … eno l sunny 3endo ra2iss wizara … l shit 3endo nabih berry w HA 3emlin imarra la halon …. w nehna mba2a 3enda hadan…. ana my opinion eno this is sfeir mistake ken mafroud ya3te 1 nameeeeeeeeeeeeeeee mish 7 !!!! wheik ken jabaron yjibo ra2iss

  • 12. PAULETTE | November 25th, 2007 at 6:02 pm

    & ROLAND,BY THE WAY,ONCE AGAIN ,WE’RE NOT ONLY RESISTING HA BUT ALSO SYRIA(SUPPORTED BY ISRAEL),AND IRAN WITH THEIR DREAMS OF AN EXTREMIST CHIITE MIDDLE EAST.ONLY DEMOCRACY , RESPONSIBLE FREEDOM, RATIONALISM, AND OF COURSE OUR STRONG FAITH ARE OUR WAY TO SALVATION.BE STRONG.DON’T LET THEM FEAR YOU.IT’S A QUESTION OF WHO IS SCARED FIRST.WE ARE THE ROCK,AND OVER THIS ROCK WILL BE BUILT THE FREE LEBANON.LOVE U ALL.

  • 13. paul | November 25th, 2007 at 6:25 pm

    Roland,you have no reason to be afraid, unless you are a logical person.

  • 14. Bachir 7ay Fina | November 25th, 2007 at 6:46 pm

    PAULETTE
    7elo ne7ke 3an tarikhna w 3an el mou2awame taba3na . bass el masi7iye bi lebnen mazbout bi khatar hala2.
    choufe el Chiye7 wel da7ye li kenit manatai2 masi7iye chou sar fiya.
    el centre ville choufe manna jemi3 fi.
    Zahle w dawa7iye kelna sorna na3rif adday fi 2ared menbe3a fiyoun.
    el Matn sar fi ktir 2eslem.
    bel Chouf ma ba2a 3endik masi7iye.
    bi Jbeil w Keserwen fi ktir 2arade nbe3it kamen.
    aktar men nos el chabeb el masi7e hejar, w li ba3do bi lebnen natir el visa.
    Li 3am bi sour fina houwe el mawt el ra7im halla2. 2derna nosmoud 3askariyan bass 3am nekhsar halla2 li ano lwade3 el 2ektisade sefer.

  • 15. elie | November 25th, 2007 at 6:48 pm

    Lebanese christians problem is that they don’t know what they want.
    you keep talking about 50-50..or that we are minority and so on….
    WE SHOULD ALL FOCUS ON CREATING OUR PURE CHRISTIAN STATE EVEN ON 30% OF LEBANON….THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO KEEP CHRISTIANS FROM LEAVING THIS LAND…
    IF WE HAVE OUR STATE …WE DON’T CARE ABOUT HOW MANY CHILDREN EACH MUSLIM WOMEN IS HAVING…LET THEM BECOME 10 MILLIONS …WHO CARES …DO WE CARE HOW MANY THE SYRIANS ARE ..OR THE JORDANIANS….
    BELIEVE ME…WE SHOULD PUT ALL OUR EFFORTS TO CREATE OUR STATE…LIKE THIS ..AL CHRISTIANS WILL HAVE A COMMON GOAL…AND WE WILL ACHIEVE SOMETHING..INSTEAD OF INSULTING EACH OTHERS .

  • 16. paul | November 25th, 2007 at 6:57 pm

    I hope that la7oud´s departure paves the way to federalism

  • 17. الله لا يردّك | November 25th, 2007 at 7:10 pm

    I think now LAHUD was American Agent! America was for Syria as we all remember, They fuck Aoun and the Lebanese Forces, all christians.

    America love Hariri’s because they still have few Billion Dollars to spend.

    Why LAHOUD left giving the Sunni a gift?
    Why Hezbollah areangry with Lahud?
    Why Sleiman didn’t react to his boss Lahud?
    Why we maronite are so stupid to beleive the the game?
    Why
    Why
    Why?

    Allah la Yredak ya Lahoud…

    LF we have to return back to be oursleves without nobody. As el Bash was.

  • 18. Roland | November 25th, 2007 at 7:13 pm

    paulette ur words are appealing and u have a strong will. Allah y awike.

    ya elie, the Christian state u r talking about is a long gone dream. ana mane dod fekrit federaliye bel asses bass el massi7iye ma2ssoome ben ba3da ma tensa.

    Maronites had many chances in history to model a state that would satisfy their political ambitions, lyom el massi7iye do3fo ktir wma3a do metl abel.

    ri2asset el jemhooriye ma3ad ela sala7iyet, nooweb massi7iye mente5binon eslem, wel wa7idin el mon2ossmin hene el massi7iye.

    3a ard el we2i3, ma be3te2id that there is a true solution btw M8 & M14, mab te5lass ela ta wa7ad mnel tnen 7ay kassir rass el tene. w akid el massi7iye hene the biggest losers, the #1 institution of the state is vacant 2day.

    I am an LF. a disappointed one.

    I remember how Bachir got to be president. He imposed himself as one. El nooweb yele maken badon yejo 3a el jalsse 7atoowon bi snedi2 el siyarat w jeboowon!!
    2day Hakim w el batrak 3am bi 5allo berre w harire y na2o min ra2iss.. w 3on el 7mar mtan7ar 3al kerse.

    Lebanon, what a maze!! but I love it.

    regards.

  • 19. Israeli | November 25th, 2007 at 8:08 pm

    I am saying it with a sad heart, but I am affraid Lebanon is much more Islamic and Arabic than you suggest. Actually, after the pathetic withdrawl of the Israelies from S.Lebanon and after allow bashar el 7mar to kill lebanese kidnapp soldiers etc., Lebanon is already loosing.
    The only way the Chrisitians will regain power in Lebanon is by eliminating islamic extreemism such as Sunni Militias and HA. You have to be the dominant influence on Lebanon so that Lebanon can thrive again. Look at Israel, if, god forbid, the palestinian reach a majority Israel will seaze to be western and will become just another stupid islamic country.
    The Hakim said it clearly…the fight is for the shape of Lebanon not for a president…he knows that grand plan of HA (the arm of the Iranian revo.guard) and with god’s help he will save Lebanon all over again.

    Sharon 7ay Fina!

  • 20. Fred | November 25th, 2007 at 8:27 pm

    What Christians need now and urgently is a strong Leader who can gather the majority of christians. Whether we like it or No ,neother GMA or DSG have today this profile. Aoun is loosing a lot but those who are disspointed from him are not admiring Hakim neither. With all the respect I have for Hakim and his faith and struggle for our cause but I beleive he is not anymore the same leader we knew before.
    For 2 times now he publicly commits and give deadlines (14 March last year and 23 Nov this year for confirmed departure of Lahoud) but he fails on both. He is now a followe not a shaper of events. Aoun is selfish and crazy. Allah yer7am Pierre w Gibran w all our Martyrs who had the potential to gather all Christians. Let’s pray we have a new Bash ASAP to save us from this disaster.

  • 21. theCourtFool | November 25th, 2007 at 8:52 pm

    Excellent N10452.

    I agree with you.
    The Major and most prominent Catholic nations of the world (France, Italy, Spain – only Brazil left), and the Pope got deeply involved in a nation where its supreme executive power is reserved to a Christian Lebanese (Maronite). In a Middle East raged by Judaism vs Islam vs Judaism.

    The Lebanese people are anxious to elect a President Before And After Annapolis – We need to settle all that been going on for the past 2 years.

    Even the Palestinians know, Annapolis is worthless with plain talk, and poses for photographs.

    Who heard that the Al Quds Conference happened in Istambul last week?

    Annapolis will go just as unheard.

    And Lebanese wll be faced with new dialogues between the US, Israel, Palestine, and a message to Iran and Syria, and Lebanon would still be without a President in order to see who’s side we should be on vis-a-vis the US’s big batallion.

    Enough, We Deserve to Live Happily “More” than any of our Neighbors. Blunt, but true.

    Our intention is very much there, and our potential and recent History has proved it loud and clear.

  • 22. gary | November 26th, 2007 at 12:20 am

    so yoy understand now why the israel built a wall

  • 23. waha wera | November 26th, 2007 at 8:57 am

    lebanon really needs to dispense with the current way of running the country.

    talk of federalism is interesting. best way to do that of course is to divide the country into 6 or 7 regions. let the people of each region elect a prince/emir. and also cast a vote for 1 of them to be king or grand prince or something.

    set a time for elections in each region, maybe 4 years or so. let the king be limited to a certain amount of time in the job. maybe 8 years then he must retire and cant do that job again.

    once retired he would sit on a permanent advisory council to the other rulers. no veto votes or anything, just purely there to advise based on experience. each prince would join that once voted out (if they had served at least 8 years).

    instead of MP’s in a parliament building, change the way things are done so that govt ministers must have credentials to run a department, to be Minister of Defense for example, the candidates must have served in armed forces and attained a certain rank. let all citizens vote on these appointments.

    Ban all political parties in their current form as they are a waste of time. instead have regional forums where all needs can be decided and plans put in place by the people of that region. the outcome of each forum can be given to the prince and he can relay it to the govt.

    thats about the simplest political solution for lebanon that i can come up with. it eliminates the bullshit divisions based on religion.



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