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Interpreting Jumblatt’s moves

Posted by N10452

I am still surprised by the anger and frustration and dissapointment shown by many M14ers after Jumblatt’s latest stands.

As if you don’t know that man yet ! As if this is the first time he re-adjusts his political speech !!

Jumblatt is not going out of M14, he knows he cannot let go of Hariri, he knows Syria & its allies will not welcome him back …
Most importantly, he knows he will be “eliminated” if he goes back to the Syrian ranks …

So what is this whole fuss about ?

Jumblatt was the biggest loser in the past elections, and is now facing a strong & demanding M14 Christian bloc (LF+Kataeb), specifically in terms of seats in the next government.

What one can do in such circumstance ?
This is what Jumblatt does best, and this is how he has been doing politics for as long as he was out there.

He distanced himself from M14 with some controversial & raging speeches, specifically against the Christian parties, as he has Christian Mps but no Sunnites on his side.
He starts opening channels with his political opponents and out of no where, he announces he is siding with the president now.

That way:
- He will increase Hariri’s (his long-time ally) chances of forming a government.
- He will send a message to M8 & M14 Christians by backing the president and weaken & divide them further.
- He might gain a seat or two from the president’s share.
- He will neutralize his relations with Syria and its allies, and avoid being part of future sectarian clashes that might occur.

This is why i always say, Jumblatt never really changed. He is still a man with no principles and with his community,his leadership and his share of the cake as his only worries.

PS: Keep in mind that Jumblatt’s worst nightmare is a strong united Christian bloc. That will help you understand his stances much better :-)


Filed under: Critiques, Lebanon, Political
Posted by N10452 on 08.04.09 @ 8:35 am | 34 Comments

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34 Comments. Add your own...

  • 1. Lebanonhsh | August 4th, 2009 at 8:51 am

    exactly! for once you got it right :)

  • 2. Michele | August 4th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

    Correct!!! So little M14…ers; chill out! …and Yellow jackets like Ja3far you must be feeling a little nauseous from the atrocious stink at your door; or yet again most likely feel at home in the presence of the junior mouse…

  • 3. danny | August 4th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    OK…Ja3far you know your stuff!! LOL

  • 4. ja3far | August 4th, 2009 at 1:40 pm

    how was the honey moon danny :) ?

  • 5. danny | August 4th, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    J,

    You flatter me…I don’t like sweets!!

  • 6. THERESINIA | August 4th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    I find it HILARIOUS that in a few weeks the Caporal and his sheep will be talking NICELY about Jumbo….

  • 7. kezballah | August 4th, 2009 at 6:05 pm

    N I agree totally with your analysis, I think Jumblat knows that all he has is rotten tomatoes and no one will pay good money for them, but if he stays home no one cares about him so he decided to put his stuff in a cart and go in the street shouting to sell them, now everyone is talking about him and his rotten tomatoes, and if some dictator or Mullah need to make a Bloody Mary he will get a few liras.

    Well I hope some young Druze supporters of March 14 will make a group and speak up against this shame, this affects them much more than us.

  • 8. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 6:57 pm

    In Israel when the Druze are unhappy they block roads do petitions and strikes like real men they don’t switch sides like chicken….and again i must stress that the druze unit of IDF gave hezbollah a lesson in 2006 … and today 90 percent of druze men ask to join the units participating in the defense of the northern border i told you they are no chicken like Walid jumblat!They don’t switch sides and I heard recently some druze men speak about what happened in 2007 in Lebanon….if I was hezbollah I would not touch the Druze community in Lebanon because you just might happen to irritate also some very influencable people in my country.A bon entendeur…..

  • 9. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 7:12 pm

    And in 2009 the Druze of israel are not afraid of Nasrallah like Walid Jumblat…..and I doubt the Druze in the mountains are like Jumblat also!!!

  • 10. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    Nasrallah may rule South Lebanon…..but he will never rule over the Galilee with its magnificient cities of Haifa ,Carmiel ;Tiberias TSfat Nahariya ,all these cities resist Nasrallah that’s for sure!!!

  • 11. ja3far | August 4th, 2009 at 7:26 pm

    Poor avi.. . I understand it is a boring job you have …but how come your government is recruiting low IQ people these days… is it to cut down salaries?

  • 12. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    No I actually do this as a private agenda…….because it’s the bare truth of my side….and if the state gave me money to do this I would laugh take the money and would bombard Al manar station…..that’s why I choose Ouwet because I think it is this type of lebanese ideology that at he end of the day will make peace with us!

  • 13. paul | August 4th, 2009 at 9:01 pm

    avi

    aljazeera said today that israel prepare for war.is that true?

  • 14. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 10:01 pm

    If Israel wants peace it must prepare for war pAUL………LIKE WHAT’s new????

  • 15. paul | August 4th, 2009 at 10:15 pm

    it’s not new , flavius vegetius renatus said from 1600 years “si vis pacem para bellum”
    wikipedia means it’s even from platon.

    so my question is where is the progress in that?

  • 16. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 10:17 pm

    Its called survival Paul….and we intend on surviving and the progress is the safty of the homeland period.

  • 17. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 10:18 pm

    And this survival will be miltary and hopefully one day diplomatic….I guess that a long way still with Lebanon right?

  • 18. paul | August 4th, 2009 at 10:30 pm

    avi it’s because every day we hear news about dialogue between israel and syria , if you can find a solution with syria you dont need to bomb lebanon , and israel knows very well that assad is the only one who can solve the problem with hezbollah.iran influence in lebanon is large but now they have internal problems maybe now is the chance to made peace unless you want the war only to make war.

  • 19. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 10:31 pm

    That’s why i have been pleading for the 1949 armistice Pauland guess who is against it in lebanon Hezb ofcoarse and guess who is against it in Israel ……nobody!!

  • 20. ja3far | August 4th, 2009 at 10:56 pm

    Avi.. there is a nice article on world tribune about your army preparation for peace:
    worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/me_israel0616_08_03.asp
    be sure to be among the tourists who will be coming in .. we will give u a very warm welcome ;)

  • 21. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 11:01 pm

    No we tell the tourists the truth…….our army is prepared for war and is preparing many suprises for those who choose to attach the country…so they can feel safe!

  • 22. ja3far | August 4th, 2009 at 11:25 pm

    let us hope the war will not happen.. but in case if ever happened, which is the most probable, if u can still go online, we will remind each others who will be looking for a cease fire ..
    have sweet dreams for now :)

  • 23. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 11:35 pm

    well if there is no cease fire the calm will be shattered by a hezbollah attack…what a shame!!!

  • 24. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

    I mean armistice because it is clear that the 1701 will not stand very long!!

  • 25. avi | August 5th, 2009 at 12:32 am

  • 26. Doc1559 | August 5th, 2009 at 8:37 am

    Topic : Interpreting Jumblatt’s moves

    Comments : Israeli war on Lebanon !

    Why don’t you guys stick to the topic ?

    ———————————————–
    By n10452 : What one can do in such circumstance ?

    If you don’t correct the problem now, you’ll forever be focusing on fixing the mess, rather than preventing them in the first place.

    I believe something is very wrong with your fake M14 alliance. You simply cannot trade the dignity of your people and shuhada in order to invest it in POLITICS. It is a crime to let this happen to your people and it won’t be long ya chabeb before you lose those who supported you and gave you their votes and thn latter were fooled by you and your bad quality leadership. You guys will pay heavy in 2013, wait and see. M14 must pay heavy price for Junblat’s mistake.

    All of us in Lebanon belong to groups of various kinds. Our Leaders are like everyone else on this blog, they also behave badly in different ways, w bissibo ba3ed 3la tale3 wel nezil , w kilo mebneh 3la ta2fiyeh w mazhabiye w ekhir hamun Lebanon (i.e junblat left his alliance in order to protect the druze community).. kama takuno yuwala 3laykum..

    For reasons that are now crystal clear, sectarianism is our # 1 enemy in Lebanon along with Israel of course.Therfore, We need and we must promote patriotic leaders who can put ta2fiye on the side and lead all of us regardless of who we are and group we belong to…Lebanese missed their chance with GMA, but it is never late to either support the guy again or simply promote from within.. ma fi 7al 2ila hek.

    One last question to all M14 patriotic followers out there :

    Why do you follow leaders who behave badly and are incompetent of doing their job ??

    Quote : Wherever a man comes, there comes revolution. The old is for slaves (ralph emerson)..

    Stop being slaves.. Stop following the old !! Free yourselves from feudalism, and Lebanon wil prosper.

    Time to study noww.. thx for reading..

  • 27. Doc1559 | August 5th, 2009 at 8:44 am

    avi

    14. avi | August 4th, 2009 at 10:01 pm

    If Israel wants peace it must prepare for war pAUL………LIKE WHAT’s new????

    answer : Gr8 logic indeed ya za-b–er !!! I gave up on you anyway..

    but it is always good to mention your goals :

    “The Promised Land extends from the River of Egypt to the Euphrates. It includes parts of Syria and Lebanon.”
    (Yehudah Leib Fischmann, 1947)

    FACHARETTT ..

  • 28. avi | August 5th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    well if you enjoy lying to yourself…….Doc wake up Israel wants safety not territory.

  • 29. Doc1559 | August 6th, 2009 at 8:04 am

    Avi

    Im awake boy…. Reality is what it is, not what you want it to be…

    All wars in the region were : MADE IN ISRAEL ..

    I have to ask the question khabibi :

    JUST BCUZ YOU CAN, DOES THAT MEAN YOU SHOULD WAGE A NEW WAR ON LEBANON ??

    After more than 50 yrs of existence , Israel now IS weaker than ever b4.. it is hard not to see that as good news ;) ..

    shalom khabibi

  • 30. Jean | August 6th, 2009 at 8:25 am

    What else can one expect from Jump-a-lot? He is obviously scared of the political bomb that will rock Lebanon with the internation tribunal!

    Where are the patriots today? Where are those that are not scared to say “fuck you” to all foreign countries trying to throw their weight and influence behind our domestic affairs.

    Safety (both internal and external) of your country means safety of your sect … Yet noone understands this little bit of logic!

  • 31. avi | August 11th, 2009 at 12:07 am

    Doc you really do need a reality check!!Hezbollah is not defending Lebanon or the Shia in Lebanon if not they would not use their own civilian houses as launching pads…..plus how come doc the Lebanese after all the hell they have been through just like us permits a militia to still use LEBANESE territory to attack Israel, how many times will history have to repeat itself till the Lebanese say enough…we don’t believe in violence as a tool against Israel…maybe negociating is better than another war!!!Give up on me as much as you want you will never eliminate Israel…and keep on trying and you will keeping on getting back the same medicine…. so please Doc WAKE UP!!!Israel and Lebanon should be at peace!!!!

  • 32. avi | August 11th, 2009 at 1:32 am

    By the way Doc if you are Lebanese and we talk about peace with Israel you will say ‘the Palestinians’ won’t stay here…or something like that….but for that negociation is possible…or maybe it is easier to shoot a missile behind a civilian house or kidnap soldiers and to not have control over your own country….after a long time thinking i have come to the conclusion that it is not that the Lebanese do not want to negociate with Israel…it’s more like they can’t because they are overwhelmed by an Iranian miltia………..but I did not expect Lebanon to do nothing….I guess some people really don’t understand that the 1701 resolution was made so that the Lebanese could get their act together!But apparently that is as simple as that your leaders hide behind foreign powers and none of them have the cojones of Bachir Gemayel…… Walid joumblat or harriri or nasrallah or aoun and all the other stooges only know how to hide behing their masters…..while the rest of the Lebanese are to busy trying to feed their families for then a militia, because history always repeats itself;will attack Israel and then of coarse Lebanon pays the price….why don’t the Lebanese get their act together and negociate with Israel for the love of G. ,for peace ,for the palestinians ,for the lebanese own sake and every body’s future…..That will place the ball in Israel’s camp and will be more affective then all the missiles your country or more like from your country we have been suffering…..I am sorry I just don’t get it! It is in everybody’s interest right Doc….Or Israel that doesn’t exist but actually does exist as a modern nation does not exist period…and history will just repeat itself????

  • 33. avi | August 11th, 2009 at 1:49 am

    And for the phrase Doc Israel only understands violence that’s why we need hezb so to that I answer what has all the violence your hezb and before that the PLO brought to Lebanon…now I have a surprise for you Doc Israel understands violence only to well ,and many Israelis think that Lebanon only knows how to attack Israel and you know why??because your current leaders will never have the balls to control the country they are to busy defending their respective masters wishes which by the way means you are still in a cold war between yourselves…and by the way this is not the case of Israel….In history Israel went many times to war without the help of the USA and our leaders are not divided between those that follow Iran or Saudi Arabia or Usa…..sorry to say Doc it is time for Lebanon to start assuming it’s independence….something that common Israelis like myself see as a vital interest for the future generations!

  • 34. avi | August 11th, 2009 at 1:53 am

    So the reality check is this Doc ,not all the wars were ‘made in Israel’ the situation is very complex and it would be wise when it rains not to say ‘it’s the jews fault’ because that would also be false…A bon entendeur…..



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