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Prelude to War

Posted by Mickel

Lebanon these days is a powder keg; there’s a lot of tension, hate, and mistrust among Lebanese factions and between Lebanon and its neighbors and war is just around the corner.  There are three major scenarios that are the most plausible and would ignite the fuse in Lebanon.

Scenario 1: Tensions in the North.

After the clashes in and around Tripoli, things have been relatively calm lately.  But there has been a lot events happening in Akkar lately between the Sunnis and the Alawite minority.  These fights are being instigated by Syria and now there is a lot of talk that these events, like the shooting of a Sunni Sheikh in the North, are part of an huge Syrian plan to invade northern Lebanon and annex it to Syria.

The plan is to have the Alawites irritate the Sunni majority until the latter is fed up and launshes a full blown attack on Alawite villages — like the one Christians launched on Tel l Zaatar in 1976.  That’s when Syria will interfere claiming to protect the Alawite minority from extermination.  It will be helped by all of its tools in the North: Arab Party, SSNP, Baath, and HA will attack from Hermel…

When I first started hearing about this, I thought Is Bashar really this desperate to get back to Lebanon? and does he actually believe that it will work? 

Scenario 2: Tensions between the Army and Hezbollah.

Twice in one week, Hezbollah has attacked army officers and killed them.  The message that Hezbollah is sending is clear: “Don’t get in our way, WE are in control”.

I don’t know how long will the army tolerate this.  If these attacks continue, tensions will further rise between the army and Hezbollah, and soon there will be tensions within the army itself.  Unless Hezbollah stops these attacks – which have been viewed by many as a declaration of war — we are certainly headed for a clash between some army factions and Hezbollah.

Scenario 3: Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.

After the last prisoner swap, Israelis have been feeling angry and defeated.  Since then, they have been threatening that they are going to end Hezbollah and fight the “last war with Lebanon”…  On the other hand, Hezbollah has been updating and upgrading its military capabilities and is looking forward to a new war to prove its new strengths, once the green light comes from Iran. 

The Israelis say they are going to attack all of Lebanon this time around seeing that the new government legitimized the ‘resistance’, which means that the Lebanese will suffer more and face more death and destruction.

Any one of these possibilities is terrifying, but I’m afraid war is imminent and it’s only a matter of time.  I guess that’s the curse that Lebanon suffers from.  Will it ever live in peace?


Filed under: Editorials, Lebanon, Other, Personal Opinions, Predictions, Regional Politics
Posted by Mickel on 09.05.08 @ 3:50 am |

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12 Comments. Add your own...

  • 1. xz | September 5th, 2008 at 4:28 am

    Stop scaring us, schools are starting :P

  • 2. g_cedar | September 5th, 2008 at 6:23 am

    As long as the lebanese continue to be deeply divided and wont agree on anything to save the country from mayhem, then they all deserve what is coming to them! I hate to admit this, but we are our worst enemy and suffer from our own foolishness.

  • 3. livingosomewhere | September 5th, 2008 at 6:55 am

    g_cedar u said it all. I only blame the Lebanese for all this. Not havin the guts to stand up for the cause of their own country. U want change? Stop voting for these criminals that r running the country. We saw change when the syrian left Lebanon…how did it happen? All lebanese gathered for 1 cause and one cAUSE only. To save Lebanon and they accomplished it. They went better country better life well this is the time. The time to stop following a corrupted politician and start following ur fellow lebanese for better Lebanon.

  • 4. Rima | September 5th, 2008 at 8:05 am

    The problem started with the head of snake Aoun who wreaked the Christian immunity on our heads… and led to the supremacy of Syria over lebanon…which led to the tumor called HA

  • 5. Rima | September 5th, 2008 at 8:11 am

    Mickel

    Excellent article…

    Remember the Assad’s visit to Russia…The georgian invasion of Ossetia and the inaction of the international community(mouyou2a I call it) will encourage bashar to do the same in North Lebanon…This way she will annex sthg if it cannot swallow all lebanon….too bad my parents live upthere…

    Just bad bad scenarios

  • 6. Rodge | September 5th, 2008 at 9:15 am

    Mickel,

    Perfect Analysis, and there are many indocations to prove what you have said, the latest what Bashar said yesterday.

    although I think the first scenario is hard to be executed as it was planned, but it could be implemented partially, meaning incent clashes to change a current situation, and the Syrians can use any other party to achieve their targets.

    as for Bashar and his statements, March 14 reply is not enough, what has been said by one of Michel Sleiman’s advisors does not satisfy us, once for all we should have a president able at least to reply clearly to the bold Syrians inteference.

  • 7. THERESINIA | September 5th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

    The 3 scenario are linked together: they result from the political losses incured during the past months by Hizbollah and Syria; while adding to that the Iranian threat to Israel!

    Syria is bluffing to gain time for Iran in the so-called peace negociations. The way out is another destabilization. The only way is by creating WAR fronts!

    The one “ideal” place to serve Syria and Iran is to create a Lebanese FRONT!

    Their agent the General of Rabiyeh will give them the Christian cover…

  • 8. fad14 | September 5th, 2008 at 3:09 pm

    i have to agree with some parts Mickel and strongly on the last one, Israel will never allow a Chimp like Mastolla to be this powerful and the fact that he is getting more powerful (as he claims) will not be tolerated for long.

  • 9. Rima | September 5th, 2008 at 3:30 pm

    hahaha “Mastolla” so funny
    this man has been allocated over 100 names on this site

  • 10. Tarek | September 5th, 2008 at 9:28 pm

    Though the scenarios seem real for me, HA has already taken over ALL of Lebanon so I don’t see the need for further invasions.

  • 11. Rasheed | September 5th, 2008 at 10:03 pm

    Since the severity and frequency of threats coming from Israel and Syria have been at the same level over the past few weeks, isn’t it time to launch a Lebanese resistance movement and to develop a clear defense strategy (stratijiyeh dife3iyeh) against Syrian and not just Israeli attacks?

  • 12. Rima | September 6th, 2008 at 2:40 am

    rasheed
    yes shou fi moukawemeh bi riz we moukawame i bourghoul!



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