The main characteristic of the Baath regime and any dictatorial regime is that it eliminates physically anyone who presents a threat to their plans, specifically when it is one of their allies or should i say loyal followers.

Syria assassinated Kamal Jumblatt when they saw in him a strong leader threatening their future plan to invade Lebanon and control it, even though he was on the “right” side back then with the National front, they later killed Hassan Khaled as well, who started critisizing their role, and of course assasinated most of the politicians who opposed them, from Bashir Gemayel till Walid Eido few days ago ..

Hassan Nasrallah is becoming a threat to Syrian interests in my opinion, he has become too powerful and has a certain independant status in few internal decisions. After the July war, UNIFIL were sent to monitor the borders and the Shebaa farms issue was neutralized and will probably be solved in the UN. And now, after the peaceful demonstrations and sit-ins and the bombings occuring and the victory of the army in Nahr el Bared, Nasrallah held his followers from getting involved in inner-sectarian fights, and did not directly ask the army not to intervene, but just sent an indirect message.

Syria wants trouble in Lebanon, something Hezbollah cannot bare right now, probably cause of the presence of the Sunnite Jihadist groups, and because it got itself involved in a political crisis, that requires from it to avoid showing its chaos-making side so that it stays credible to its allies, mainly the Christian ones.

Jumblatt raised an important issue in his latest interview, something few people noticed or commented on.He stated that Nasrallah was “reading” his speech last time he talked, something unusual, and he seems bothered and uneasy. He questioned also of how influential has Imad Mughnieh become in the HA-decision making, and of whether he has become stronger than Nasrallah himself ..

For all those who dont know who that man is, he was on the top most wanted terrorists of the FBI and he is a senior member of the Hezbollah and head of its security section, he has links to Al-Qaeda and has performed numerous kidnappings and assassinations in the past.

Hassan Nasrallah could be the “bouc emissaire” of a general regional settlement and has to take a decisive move in either breaking up with Syria once and for all, or bare the consequences of putting obstacles on its way even though indirectly ..

The only guarantee that he might have is the Iranian side but Iran knows it is almost impossible for HA to make its Islamic Republic in Lebanon while Sunnites and Christians are still around and while the Shiite community is going backwards on all levels instead of integrating the socio-economical life, all that cause of its leaders.

Sending the UN troops to monitor the Syrian borders will be a major blast for Syrians and they might ask impossible tasks for their allies to perform … or else ??

Johnny Kairouz, a Lebanese living in Canada, has contributed this article to The Beirut Spring.

The issue tackled here does not imply that the crisis in Lebanon today is solely a Palestinian one. In fact, the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon are far from being held responsible for the recent events. Determining the actual culprits is a totally different subject which is anyhow far from being mysterious.

The Palestinian predicament in Lebanon mainly involves the refugees themselves, the Lebanese state, Israel and the Arab countries. All of the concerned parties, except Israel, long for their return to their homeland. Obviously, every faction has its own reasons.

The Palestinian refugees have been in constant dismay and dissatisfaction since their arrival to Lebanon more than five decades ago. The idea of being expelled from their homeland was their first and foremost consternation. Then came the meddling of their paramilitary groups in the maze of Lebanese internal – and external – politics: this era could be denoted as their rise and fall in Lebanon.

The rise was represented by the strong financial and military support they were receiving from international, regional and local actors. While the Soviet Union was provided them with the weapons and the logistics, the Arab countries offered them financial, political and media coverage. Most importantly, a big part of the Lebanese people sided with them.

Their decline started when they were opposed by another big part of the Lebanese people and when consequently Lebanon’s two neighboring countries intervened. This is when the Palestinian civilians started to pay the price of their armed groups’ adventures. Many civilians became victims of atrocious massacres – many of which were a reaction to what their armed groups had committed to other parties.

As a result of their contribution to the civil war, the Palestinians were severely reprimanded by almost everyone in Lebanon. Ever since the Taef Agreements, they were virtually condemned to stagnate in their camps.

The human rights and humanitarian situation they are undergoing is certainly undesirable. They are subject to many restrictions such as building and reconstruction in the twelve overpopulated camps they are confined to. Furthermore, while education is practically out of reach, they are prohibited from practicing more than 72 professions. In other words, their situation is not viable.

Although most of the Lebanese people are against nationalizing them, every group has its own reason. The first opinion, which is also upheld by most of the Arab countries, advocates their “right of return” to their homeland. This staunch Arab nationalist stance views the integration of the Palestinians – into the Lebanese society – as an admission of defeat in their ongoing conflict with Israel.

The second opinion views the settlement of the Palestinians in Lebanon as a destabilizing factor: it would threaten – the already shaky – demographic balance among the different religious communities in Lebanon. This opinion is mainly shared by the Christian and the Shia groups but also by the Sunnis who view them as potential rivals within their own community.

The Lebanese people also view the Palestinian camps as an imminent threat to their national sovereignty. Ever since the Arab-sponsored 1969 Cairo Agreement, the camps’ security is exclusively maintained by their armed element. The absence of the Lebanese Army in these areas has come to be known as “Security Isles” within the Lebanese territory.

The lack of the state’s full control over its territory has allowed several foreign powers to use these “Security Isles” for arms smuggling as well as hindering Lebanon’s internal security. The loose security surrounding some of the camps can allow, for instance, cars to be loaded with explosives in these areas and be sent to potential targets all over Lebanon.

The paramilitary groups in these camps can burst at any moment by reacting to a regional event thus create turmoil in Lebanon. Furthermore, the camps are allegedly being used to recruit and train terrorists who are later on sent on missions to Iraq. By harboring recruit camps, Lebanon is certainly attracting the entire nuisance that comes with it on an international and regional level.

Lebanon has many security deficiencies and not all of them are due to the Palestinian camps. Blaming all of Lebanon’s perils on the Palestinians would be excessively unjust. However the presence of the Palestinian camps does impede the process of building a better future for Lebanon.

For the three reasons stated above – the right of return; the demographic issue and; the security aspect – a solution certainly needs to be fostered. Without any doubt, the Palestinian civilians must have more rights and benefit from social welfare. The only problem is that Lebanon has – literally – other fish to fry.

Because unfortunately Lebanon cannot afford to grant the Palestinian refugees the treatment they deserve, because unluckily they have been used as scapegoats more than often and because their situation has been increasingly unbearable to them and to Lebanon, a radical decision is needed.

The matter has been procrastinated for years and maybe today is an auspicious time to deal with it once and for all. Lebanon has offered them shelter for more than half a century. Lebanon has also contributed its considerable share in the Arab-Israeli conflict. It’s now time for other Arab countries to offer the deprived refugees what Lebanon could not afford but that they sure can: Land, rights and money.

The resettlement of the Palestinians to other Arab countries will be a win-win situation. Lebanon will get rid of one of the major obstacles that are impeding the implementation of a strong sovereign state and the Palestinian civilians will have a better prospect in obtaining a brighter future pending to their hopeful return to their land.

By Nicholas Blanford, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
Fri May 11, 4:00 AM ET

After scrabbling up a slope in this desolate valley amid Lebanon’s craggy southern hills, I found it: an ominous pitch-black hole partially blocked by a layer of rock.

It would be a tight squeeze to get in. And going farther was potentially risky.

Our discovery was so rare and revealing that it could have been booby-trapped with explosives. I checked for tripwire, but didn’t see any.

“Found it. It’s open. We can get in,” I called to my two colleagues, laboring up the hill.

We were about to enter the secret world of Hizbullah, the militant Shiite group that battled Israel from this perch, and dozens of other hidden positions, last summer. We weren’t sure what we’d find below, but were certain it would tell us a great deal about the capabilities of the Lebanese guerrillas that fought from these steep limestone hills covered in a dense undergrowth of scrub oak and juniper bushes.

Pausing to catch my breath, I shrugged off my backpack and reached inside for a head lamp.

As we climbed in, air chilled by the deep subterranean passageways wafted out of the entrance, a refreshing contrast to the blazing heat of the valley.

Bunker huntingI had been hunting for one of Hizbullah’s bunkers since the end of the 34-day war.

It had been a frustrating exercise, to be sure. The bunkers and rocket-firing positions had been constructed in great secrecy, the entrances cunningly camouflaged, in remote valleys along the Lebanon-Israeli border.

In addition to possible booby traps, cluster bombs, and other unexploded ordnance litter many of Hizbullah’s abandoned “security zones” in valleys and hilltops along the border.

In March, I was fortunate enough to have received map coordinates from a source that led me to a bunker, which could be accessed by a 20-foot shaft.

A second series of map coordinates, which I tapped into a global-positioning system (GPS) device, led us to this spot about two miles north of the Israeli border near Rshaf, earlier this week.

As we followed the arrow on the GPS, we could hear the whine of an Israeli reconnaissance drone, invisible against the brilliant blue sky, as it slowly circled high above us. It was probably searching for signs of new Hizbullah activity.

Going inShining my head lamp into the entrance, I could see that the pile of boulders only ran for a few feet, after which the opening widened into a passageway.

The walls and ceiling were reinforced with steel plates and girders painted black to prevent stray reflections from the sun giving away the concealed entrance.

As I crawled in the tunnel, I watched carefully for scorpions and spiders. The passage ran horizontally for about 10 yards before doglegging to the right.

It was little more than shoulder-width, and we had to stoop slightly to avoid hitting the ceiling with our heads. Once around the corner, the steel plates were painted white, this time to better reflect the electric lighting.

Electric cables ran through white plastic tubes, fixed to the walls, leading to switches and glass-encased light sockets. A blue plastic hose running along the top of the wall carried the bunker’s water supply.

The first room we encountered was a small bathroom complete with an Arab-style latrine, a shower, a basin with taps, and a hot water boiler. There was even a drainage system constructed beneath the concrete floor.

The air was blissfully cool after the sun-drenched heat of the valley. In two places along the main passage – which must have been more than 60 yards long – were vertical ventilation shafts covered by metal grills, ensuring a steady flow of fresh air.

We were perhaps 100 to 150 feet underground at this point, deep enough to withstand almost anything in Israel’s arsenal. I let my colleagues walk on and then switched off my head lamp.

The sudden darkness and utter silence was unbearably oppressive.

What must it have been like for the dozen or so fighters housed in this bunker, awaiting the advancing Israeli troops?

There was a kitchen with storage shelves and an aluminum sink and taps. The white metal walls were mottled with brown rust. Every 10 yards or so along the passage was a heavy steel blast door that could be locked from the inside with a bolt.

As far as I know, this is the largest and most elaborate bunker discovered so far.

Just the effort that went into building it was extraordinary, and yet, it was constructed in complete secrecy.

Most likely, no one outside Hizbullah knew it existed until two weeks ago, even with peacekeepers from the UN force known as UNIFIL (UN Interim Forces in Lebanon) patrolling the ground and Israeli aircraft watching from the skies above.

Every piece of equipment, every steel plate, every girder, every door had to be carried by hand up the side of the valley and fitted into place inside the bunker.

And there was no clue as to what happened to the hundreds of tons of quarried rock during the excavation work.

Six years of buildingWhile it was widely suspected that Hizbullah had been building underground facilities in the six years prior to the war, it was only after the Aug. 14 cease-fire that their scale and sophistication was understood.

Israel had seriously underestimated its foe and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and other top officials are fighting for their political survival as a result.

“It was a combination of a monumental intelligence failure – the Israelis only found these bunkers by stepping on them – and extremely professional and efficient work by Hizbullah,” says Timur Goksel, a Beirut-based consultant on Mideast security issues and a former senior adviser to UNIFIL.

Now, the bunkers are useless. Their locations having been compromised.

Hizbullah has abandoned all the bunkers in the UNIFIL-patrolled zone along the border, redeploying to a newly constructed line of defense farther north.

In this bunker, only a green sleeping mat and a simple metal bed frame remained. At the far end of the bunker, the narrow steel-lined passage broadened out into a rock cavern.

In a niche to one side were four metal water tanks with the Arabic word for “sacrifice” painted across them. A twist of a tap at the bottom of one tank, and icy water gushed out. Several steep steps cut into the rock at the end of the cavern led to an access shaft about 15 feet high with a ladder soldered onto the lining of black metal plates.

Climbing up led us back outside into a thicket of stubby oak trees about 40 yards from the entrance and farther up the hill. The Israeli drone still prowled overhead, its cameras perhaps hunting for the three mysterious people who had suddenly disappeared into thin air on the hill.

I was discussing that with a friend and to be honest , i dont buy it ..
172 arrest without a single shot .. i remember more drama when arresting a dozen or even less …
Weapons hidden in the desert ??

It just doesnt add up .

Riyadh - Police in Saudi Arabia arrested 172 suspected militants linked to seven terrorist cells including Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network in a series of raids in different cities, a spokesman for the Saudi Interior Ministry said Friday.

The suspects included several Saudi nationals and people of Yemeni and African origin, mainly Nigerian. Observers in Saudi Arabia said the raids had been staged over several months.

They had been planning terrorist attacks on oil facilities and refineries and military bases using aircraft, spokesman Mansur al- Turki said, adding that several suspects had been trained as pilots.

The largest cell had 61 members, and had been planning to assassinate officials in Mecca, according to the Saudi Press Agency. Nine members had planned to free their comrades from a prison in Jeddah.

Their leader had apparently selected them while they were going around the Kaaba in Mecca, as Muslim pilgrims do during Hajj.

The leader of the cell had operated several sports’ clubs where the recruits were being trained, the source added.
Other cells had been planning to assassinate public figures and officials and attack military bases.

Five of the 172 suspects were reportedly involved in a terrorist attack last year. On February 24, 2006, Saudi security forces foiled an attempted suicide attack on an oil processing facility in eastern Saudi Arabia.

A weapons cache including several weapon and more than 20 million Saudi riyals (around 5.3 million dollars) had been seized, the spokesman added said, adding, ‘…al-Qaeda was still trying to revive its activities.’

Islamist militants linked to the al-Qaeda network have staged a series of attacks in Saudi Arabia in recent years, targeting mainly foreigners and security personnel.

Probably the biggest joke ever, Elections in Syria.

Why bother organize elections and insult the world’s intelligence by claiming that those are democratic elections ?

All Independant MPs were thrown in jail last year, one of them MP Maamun Homsi who fled to Lebanon earlier this year. Michel Kilo, another opposition member is still in jail.

There is no opposition in Syria, no one is running against the Baath party, the 99.9998% of the Syrian people will vote once again for Bashar el Assad and Baath, as they have been doing since the coup in 1973.

There are no reports on those elections from any paper, no international surveillance, no nothing, and from what i read in the papers, barely anyone is voting.

Well well,
I didnt hear Nasrallah mentioning this in his speech ?? Or such information should not be heard by his followers ??

Syria negociating with Israel while Hezbollah is thanking Syria and attacking Sanioura of collaborating with Israel and the Americans !

Stop insulting our intelligence, HA will pay a very heavy price if a deal is made btw Syria and the Americans ..

Here is the article :

Assad-Offered Peace with Israel Cuts off Hizbullah Link

Syrian-American negotiator Ibrahim Suleiman said Thursday Syrian President Bashar Assad was ready for peace with Israel in six months that could cut his links with Lebanon’s Hizbullah and allow him to fight terrorism.

“Since 1948 Israeli leaders have said they are ready to talk peace anytime and anywhere,” The Israeli daily Haaretz quoted Suleiman as telling reporters at a news conference after addressing the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. “Syria right now is ready to speak peace.”

“I challenged the Israeli government to answer President Bashar [Assad]’s call for peace and sit down together,” he added. “I think it can happen in six months.”

David Baker, an official in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, said in response: “The position of the Israeli government remains the same. The Syrian government is not pursuing peace but is merely posturing.”
(more…)

I posted earlier asking who will strike first ?
Well Israel apparently is gonna be the one to strike first, at least according to several articles i wrote about an upcoming regional war.

Even though i highly doubt the US or Israel will go after such an insane hit, there are talks and even plans on how this operation will be executed in few days or weeks time.

How will the operation be executed ??

Rumors are spreading that Israel is stockpiling for an attack, it acquired 30 long-range F-15 from the US and bought more than 5000 bunker-busters, missiles that can penetrate up to 10 metres of earth and concrete.

Israel will take off with three squadrons of six F-15’s - fly over Iraq, and hit Iran’s three key facilities. The US is expected to provide satellite information and refueling as the Israeli jets exit.

Iran will see this as an attack by America, and will threaten to retaliate. Israel will launch a Sunburn 22, taking out a carrier, and Iran will get blamed.

You can read the rest of this disastrous scenario for the whole region on this link.

I will post later on on the Sunburn 22 missile which is the prime target of The Americans and Israelis added to the Nuclear installations in Iran.

The consequences of such a hit will be a retaliation from Iran and the straits of Hurmuz will be their first target to stop the flow of oil, and plunge the world market into a serious crisis.

When Hezbollah guerillas abducted two Israeli soldiers from behind the demarcating blue line on that dreadful Wednesday 12th July 2006, the first reaction of the majority of the Lebanese is “where the heck are we going”…

In fact most of the country, after a year of gaining its independence from Syrian occupation was looking forward to the coming summer season…the 2005 summer had been sabotaged by a series of strategically positioned bomb blasts and killings of key Syrian opponents, so many looked forward to the coming season with great anticipation…many expats had finally decided to come back to their homeland after an absence that, for some, lasted for almost thirty odd years.

Add to this that there had been promises by Mr. Nasrallah himself that his militia would not undertake any action against Israel that might jeopardize the summer; the general feeling that reigned was “finally, Beirut is going to regain its place as the Paris of the East”. The estimated return from the tourism industry was in the region of two billion US Dollars. But all this was like counting the chicks before they hatched…

Israel’s retaliation to the abduction was as rapid as it was destructive.

Within 48 hours, they had neutralized Beirut International Airport, destroyed all the major bridges and isolated the south of Lebanon from the rest of the country…a major land, air and sea blockade completed the isolation of the country and the shelling continued: there were bombs from everywhere: from the air, from the sea and from the land…people could not escape.

Many Lebanese felt that this was not their war.

In fact, even though they resented the Israelis for their occupation of the South for a long period, they hated Hezbollah even more for taking the initiative to go to war without consulting with the rest of the country…they felt like they were taken hostage by a group of terrorists.

But, today, on the 16th day, most Lebanese feel trapped between two destructive entities that will not give up. And to make matters worse, no one dares to voice his opinion…for if you speak against Hezbollah, you are automatically labeled as an Israeli agent, and if you speak against the Israeli attacks, the world sees you as a supporter of the Islamic group.

What the whole world is not seeing is that there is this large section of the Lebanese population, from all religions and sects, that wants neither…they simply want to live in peace, be allowed to grow their kids like any one in the world, without having to worry when the next meal will be, or whether there will be enough baby formula in the supermarket to last them for the unknown duration of the conflict…

What the whole world does not see, is the even worse threat of civil war that hangs above the head of every Lebanese citizen should he decide to undertake any action from the interior of the country…at this point, tensions are very high between the major sects (Christian, Sunni and Druze) and the Shiites (composing sect of Hezbollah) despite the efforts of all the leading politicians and religious people to calm tempers down.

It must be noted that the country has been ravaged by civil war from 1975 to 1990, and many Lebanese, from all walks of life, were affected by this war…some still bear the psychological scars to this very day.

Add to this fact that the regular army, which was systematically weakened during Syrian occupation in order to strengthen the Party of God, is made up of a large majority of Shiites, any request by the government to disarm Hezbollah by force would lead to a split in the ranks, and ultimately to the dreaded civilian war. All this combines to put the government in a very weak position.

So, despite their disagreement and discontent with the Islamic party, many Lebanese citizens feel it is safer to stick to negotiations and talks, attempting to work out the issues in the most peaceful way possible.

The image of the hostage situation gone bad gets clearer day by day…the Lebanese people have been taken hostage by the Irano-Syrian militia and whoever that offered to rescue them, namely Israel, does not care about them as much as it cares for destroying the party and getting rid of the threat it poses on its own safety…

Some of the people have even succumbed to the Stockholm syndrome (The Stockholm Syndrome comes into play when a captive cannot escape and is isolated and threatened with death, but is shown token acts of kindness by the captor. It typically takes about three or four days for the psychological shift to take hold), and have come to accept Hezbollah as a legal entity.

Caught between the hammer and the anvil would be, alas, the best way to describe the whole situation…was it not said that when two elephants battle, it is the grass that suffers the most?

I blame the Lebanese people. Almost a year ago, the Lebanese woke up. They took the streets and forced the Syrian Forces to pull out of Lebanon. A few months later, they went back to sleep. By doing so, they allowed the traditional politicians and political parties to take over their revolution and cut it into pieces. The chance of turning Lebanon to a true democratic state was assassinated in front of their eyes and they didn’t budge. They watched the masquerade of “National Dialogue” unfold in front of them, they didn’t blink.

On the Christian sides, they were back to division LF vs. Tayyar. Both parties threw accusations at each others. Their supporters defended their leaders’ decision without even understanding those decisions. In reality, both group and leaders are the same. Both made the same mistakes. Yet, LF members and Tayyar followers didn’t see the tragedy of their leaders’ decision. One signed an accord with Hezbollah; the other entered a government that supports Hezbollah military actions. Both in a way or another politically covered Hezbollah. Result: War in Lebanon, 400 dead and counting, thousands of injured and displaced, total destruction. Same goes for the Muslim Lebanese, in a way or another; they also politically covered Hezbollah actions.

Here comes Mrs. Rice, ready to listen to the Lebanese factions. What do we as LF offer her? We offered her Mr. Adwan. He stood there next to Jumblat and Amin. I am sure both pitched their agendas. This is the “new” LF. We stood by others and accept to be a small player in all this.

What the LF should have done is go back to its original project. A project that had been circulating in the United State political circles as well as military and media. We should have presented her with our solution for Lebanon (I know many will say this is not the time or our solution has been dropped). This solution might be implemented all over the Middle East. Our project might be implemented all over the region, what do we do? We send Mr. Adwan; we drop the chance of presenting it. We drop our project. A week ago, I was reading a study about how federalism should be implemented in the Middle East. How federalism is the only solution for the region. What did we do when we had the chance to meet Mrs. Rice, we send her Mr. Adwan.

Some blame Hezbollah, others blame Israel. I blame the Lebanese people in general for letting go of their cedar revolution and in particular, I blame the Lebanese Forces for dropping federalism as a political project.

This is a nice link about ME relationships, The Middle East Buddy List… helps you know who’s who

Click Here

This post is just to activate the sections. Ignore it.