Hezbollah may have lost Lebanon’s election, but it remains the country’s dominant political force.
MOHAMAD BAZZI is an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a journalism professor at New York University.
Here is the thank you message that Sheikh Nadim is distributing.
It is taken from his official website.
“The Loser is always at fault”
Vasilii Nicolaevich Panov
M14 won the elections in Lebanon almost two weeks ago now, yet M8 are still finding excuses to justify their loss and desperatly trying to find some glimpse of a moral victory out of it.
No one beats the Aounists or Hezbollah at this game, as they have proven over the years how lousy they are at accepting defeat. Hezbollah even managed to convince his people after Israel practically destroyed the country during the July 06 war that this was a divine victory.
Not even David Copperfield managed to pull such a trick on his crowd.
What were the justifications of M8′s loss ??
- Political money: The Murr scandal was enough to convince the whole Aounist crowd that they did not lose the elections because money played its part. (Of course they all forgot Murr was their ally in 2005 and was doing the same things they accuse him of today).
- Sunnites votes : Aounists were outraged by Zahle results and accused M14 of fraud and moving voters in masses there. ( But they missed the fact that the increase in Shiite voters was almost as much as Sunnites in Zahle, and that Shiites made them win in Kisirwan, Baabda & Jbeil = 13 Mps)
- Virtual Majority: After accusing M14 of being a virtual majority in 2005, Hezbollah’s excuse is now that more people voted in total for M8 than M14. (Maybe someone should remind him that we abide by the constitution here, not Hezbollah’s laws)
- Blame the Patriarch: This is by far the cheapest argument and the filthiest. Aoun, Frangieh & Nasrallah attacking the Patriarch blaming him of taking sides and inciting him to respond. (But they seem to forget kam wa7ad 3ala achkeloun 2ati3 3al batrak, and the only response they will get from him is “Allah yehde el jamee3″)
However and surprisingly, no violent reactions were spotted yet, but who knows what to expect from those ?
HA’s terrorists & Aoun’s sheep will show their true image soon enough, either by taking the streets and causing riots, or invading DT again or maybe starting another war to achieve “divine victories” ON The lebanese people.
The LF Bloc which currently consists of 5 Mps, is expected to grow and become 7 or 8 Mps.
Zahle Mps Paul Abi Khater and Armenian Jean Jenjian are said to be willing to join the LF Bloc.
Of course all those are rumors so far and nothing has been confirmed yet, but this is good news as LF-Kataeb bloc will be the 2nd biggest Christian bloc. A smart move would be reuniting those two ranks and inciting some independants to join it so it becomes the biggest Christian bloc.
Unifying the ranks is what Christians need, and what M14 Christians must do in order to strenghten their position during the next 4 years.
After An-Nahar reported that 58% of Christians voted M14, many aunists resorted to the idea that Aoun has a much much more greater christian base than the LF since he alone got 42 % of all Christian votes.
I beg to differ:
Some Middle school Mathematics (Marada please dont read, you haven’t reached this level of education yet)
Lets say we got 100 Christians from M14, its logical to say that a minimum of 65 of them are LF, so we can say 65% of M14 Christians are LF. (logical minimum)
Again lets take 100 Christians from M8, Quarantine them, and start counting…We can somewhat see a MAXIMUM of 90 of them are Orangists. So thats 90% of M8 christians are tayyar.(not logical but im assuming the maximum here).
Final Tally:
1) LF: 65% of M14, and M14 got 58% of Christian votes: LF= 65% of 58% = 37.7% of Christian votes
2) Tayyar: 90% of M8, and M8 got 42% of Christian votes: Tayyar= 90% of 42%= 37.8% of Christian votes
mmm…interesting and pretty close numbers…THIS ASSUMING 90% OF M8 Christians are Tayyar, and only 65% of M14 are LF…
Please Orangists, spare us your useless lies and admit for once in your life that GMA has lost big time.
Update: The priest turned out to be aounist working for Ibrahim Kanaan and a big fat liar, and he is no longer on Lebanon soil. I don’t think he will set foot in Matn anytime soon lol.
Two remarks:
1- How did OTV get the recording ? min Jiji bil wizara ?? if so this is worse than what Murr did. Some are claiming the priest recorded it, tda77ako 3a ghayre
2- Weren’t you allies with Murr in 2005 ? why dont we go back and check what he did back then with the same priest ?
Li bayto min 2zez ma yerchou2 ghayro bi 7ajar ..
We all know Murr can do such a thing wou aktar .. chou fawwa2koun halla2
Annahar reported today that based on the elections’ stats, 58% of Christians voted for M14 candidates while only 42% for Aoun’s list.
R.I.P Tsunami 
PS: Even Al-Akhbar, the Pro-Hezbollah newspaper acknowledged Aoun’s defeat.
Did he see the loss coming ??
hahaha .. j3are wou bidallo j3are ..
It has been said since the beginning that the Christian vote will make the difference in the upcoming elections and it definitly did. The fact that M14 have secured a majority is half as important as the fact that M14 Christians have put an end to the so-called Aoun Tsunami.
Beirut I
That was the mother of all battles where Christians were voting for the first time without any Sunni votes influence. The battle was purely political and the outcome was a clean sweep and by far to the M14 candidates.
Zahle
A stunning 7-0 victory for M14 list against traditional feudal leader Skaff. Sunnite votes secured the list for M14 but the scores were already close enough which reflects a major change in political opinion among the Zahle voters.
Baabda
That was the biggest slap in the face to Aoun, despite the fact that he won. The first loser on M14′s list had gathered over 4000 votes (Christian-wise) than the nearest Aounist candidate.
Kisirwan
Despite winning 7-0, Aoun was only 1500 votes clear from M14′s first losing candidate. Keep in mind that he had done by almost double the votes back in 2005.
Batroun
Gebran Bassil was beaten by Antoine Zahra in Batroun before even officials started counting the Tannourine polling stations (all in favor of Harb & Zahra).
Jbeil
Shiite votes helped Aoun secure the two seats. That is the only district where Aoun surprinsingly prevailed easily.
Matn
Despite the 13 000 Armenian votes, the difference was only in terms of hundreds of votes not more.
I will wait for the official numbers to come out to reaffirm what i had posted or rectify any mistake i might have done, but it is quite clear that despite the fact that Aoun was able to keep his 25 Mps, his popularity has decreased drastically and what were lucky escapes for him during those elections (Matn & Kisirwan) will not be repeated 4 years from now.
FYI, i could have saved myself all this trouble and simply said that the fact that Aoun has been quiet since yesterday is the only sign one needs that he lost
Mabrouk lal Achrafieh !
Mabrouk lal Sheikh Nadim Bashir Gemayel !
This district was in my opinion the most crucial and vital one for M14 Christians as the voting was purely political, no families, no feudal leaders, no nothing involved.
Finally, a picture that speaks a million words.
Few pictures after M14′s victory in Achrafieh.
Mabrouk lal Sheikh Nadim Bashir Gemayel !
Mabrouk la Nayla Gebran Tueni !
Reuters: Hezbollah and allies lose Lebanon vote
M14 wins all seats in Batroun, Koura, Bcharreh, Beirut I & III, Akkar, Zahle, Saida & Donniyye and secure the majority.
Kisirwan, Matn & Baabda-Aley are still undecided.
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