We’ve been hearing, reading and talking about the “programmed return of political assassinations” prior to the next parliamentary elections…

Some “politicians” predict a huge earthquake, similar to the one caused by the assassination of PM Rafic Hariri. But who’s going to be the next target? A member of the March 14 alliance, or a member of the March 8 alliance?

I personally think that the Syrian regime (and yes, I am accusing them of all political assassinations in Lebanon) do not attach any importance to the people belonging to the March 14 or March 8 alliance. They are willing to sacrifice every one of them for their own interest (international tribunal, peace talks with Israel, openness to Europe and the USA…)

The Syrian regime needs an “easy target”, and whose death can cause chaos.

Unfortunately for them, the ISF and the Lebanese Army have been doing a great job lately in chasing terrorist cells. Our politicians are being much more precautious and are taking all the necessary measures to limit any assassination attempt…
So an assassination in Lebanon today is not as easy as it were a couple of months ago (I’m not saying impossible, but it’s just not that easy anymore), and the Syrian regime is in a strategy of embellishing its image.
They won’t take any risks in Lebanon.

In my opinion, the biggest earthquake that can be caused just before the next elections is Aoun’s assassination, during his “historic” visit to Syria.

Here is the situation:

The Syrians know and master the “battlefield”: so the location is known and controlled: SYRIA

The timing is just perfect: just before the parliamentary elections and during a so-called historic reconciliation

The target: a Christian politician, backed by a heavily armed chiite group, wiling to achieve its goals (regional and local) by all means (let us not forget May 7 events…)

The method is running smoothly: they fabricated a terrorist group called Fateh al Islam

The after assassination: they are fabricating virtual links between that terrorist group and the Moustakbal Movement (all that promotion through the media of Fateh al Islam today has a purpose)

What will they try to achieve by this assassination?

The aim of assassinating Aoun and liking the crime to Fateh al Islam, is to indirectly accuse Saad Hariri.
(note that the tension between the Saad Hariri and Michel Aoun is equivalent to the tension between Rafic Hariri and Emile Lahoud). This event would push the March 8 alliance for massive demonstrations in order to obtain an international tribunal, equivalent to the tribunal for Rafic Hariri (slogans we might hear and read: the blood of Rafic Hariri is not more valuable than the one of Aoun…)

By assassinating Aoun, the Syrian regime could give a huge boost to their allies during the next elections…

By assassinating Aoun, the Syrian regime would finally get rid of an uncontrollable, unstable and lunatic person.