I was sent yesterday a link to an article written by Alexander Nehme on the tayyar site and I was asked to give my comments.

Honestly, I havent managed to assimilate the logic behind the FPM political thought and their reaction to the current crisis. Michel Aoun supports the government decision in all his speeches as far as I know, the same government he was blasting few weeks ago and asked it to resign.

Aside from this contradiction, Aoun’s alliance with Hizbullah is one of the major reasons that strenghened Hizbullah on the political level after it became isolated at a certain point and was willing to dialogue.

Back then, Aoun’s argument was that he was avoiding a civil war, but what people didnt see coming and apparently neither did the political minds in the FPM is that they are preparing Lebanon for one of its deadliest wars against Israel.

Aoun has pulled out Hezbollah from their political isolation and made them reconsider disarming. What amazes me more is how Aounists justify themselves, and how this author A. Nehme explains the Hezbollah war.

“مفاجأة إسرائيل من جهة وأميركا من جهة أخرى، وإجبارهما على الدخول في الحرب قبل الموعد المحدد، لإرباكهما عسكرياً ودبلوماسياً”

The ultimate argument is that the war was always planned by the US and Israel. What a weak and lame argument!! But let us suppose they were planning a war, their war is against terror as they proclaim it and we all know Hezbollah is a terrorist party for them in Lebanon, not Sanioura or the LF or Aoun or anyone.

So from one side we have the US and Israel planning a war against Hezbollah, and from the other side Major Lebanese parties in Lebanon asking Hezbollah to disarm.

Two possible things to do:
1- Support the government, pressure Hezbollah to disarm in order to avoid Lebanon a destructive war since Israel has no interest in attacking Lebanon for the sake of it and specially no the US that has been supporting the Sanioura government since the Hariri assasination.

2- Support Hezbollah, form a major bloc of Pro-Syrian to strenghen Syria’s presence in Lebanon, put the 14th of march coalition in a rough decision vis a vis the world community and the Americans and give Israel all the alibis for going on with its war.

Without any hesitation Aoun picks the second choice since its the only hope he has to get to the presidency.

How does the author Nehme justify the choice ?
“إسرائيل ومعها فريق 14 شباط، الذي سيوقّع على توطين الفلسطينيين في لبنان، وبالتالي الانتهاء من الصراع الفلسطيني الإسرائيلي وإراحة الأردن، لتُعلن مع بداية العام 2007، دولة فلسطين، وتبدأ الأكثرية الوهمية بإعادة إعمار لبنان من الهبات الخارجية، ونكون بالتالي خسرنا كرامتنا، وخسرنا أراضينا المحتلة، وودعنا كوكبة من الشهداء والمعتقلين، لتصبح دمائهم كدماء أي مجرم حكم عليه بالإعدام.”

Same old lame argument, Aktariyya wahmiyye wou 2ittihemet bil 3amele ma3 Israel.

Mich 3erif meen 3am ye3de el tene .. bass el ghabe2 el siyyesse mich ma2bol bi tayyar siyyesse hal2ad kbeer ..

3ichtom wa 3asha cha3bou Loubnan el ghacheem ( Courtesy of General Aoun)

Here is another video provided by the Israeli army showing missiles being launched from Kfar Qana. I heard it was shown in the UN yesterday.

Can any of HA’s minister or Mr.Nasrallah explain whats going on??

I ve received more than 4 videos so far concerning Hezbollah launching sites behind and inside civilian houses, not to mention that reports in Qana explain that there were major explosions in Qana that caused the huge damage referring to weapons and rockets hidden. [Qana]

Dear all,
Anyone who has substancial info, eye witness accounts, pictures or any kind of proof of Hizbullah using and abusing civilians please mail them at :
freethesouth@gmail.com

We strongly condemn the Israeli attacks on Lebanon, we strongly condemn any invasion against our country or interference in our internal affairs BUT we cannot tolerate a LEBANESE party using innocent Lebanese civilians as human shields for purposes that only serve terrorist countries like Iran and Syria.

May the truth prevail.

May Hezbollah and Nasrallah rot in hell for what they are doing. If Israelis were war criminals, Hezbollah are ruthless killers. [Video]

Firstly I would like to begin with my condolences for all those that perished in this unacceptable, barbaric act…

My condolences go as well to the hundreds who have been savagely murdered in the last 19 days… 

My condolences go out as well to the Lebanese people for the loss of their country, that is if they do not take action. 

For the last two weeks, we have been screaming that HA are hiding amongst civilians to attack Israel…we posted on boards, we mass mailed, some wrote to news papers and major news channels…

And yet, the most concerned, the Lebanese people that were themselves the victims, stood silent…they felt powerless and defenseless…

Some accused us of treason…some even went all the way to claim we fabricated those stories… 

Today, the proof is with you, in front of you and yet some of you refuse to see…you refuse to see that HUMAN BEINGS are being used as SHIELDS…yes HUMAN BEINGS…kids, women, infants… 

Mr. Nasralla, we understand the necessities of a guerilla war…we understand that you are fighting what you and your people consider a battle of existence…but we are not in the Mekong delta or the jungles of Vietnam…this is Lebanon Mr. Nasralla…the 10452Km2 are totally inhabited…so wherever your people hide, they are endangering HUMANS…

You vowed Jihad on the Israelis…but the whole country has not…you vowed their destruction and care less if in the process you loose your life…but the whole country has not…

Lebanon and the Lebanese Mr. Nasrallah are people that want to live…we want peace…we do not want to be torn to pieces or suffocated by imploding bombs… 

When those people stayed in Qana despite the warnings issued by the Israelis to evacuate, they did so because they had put their faith in the men of the resistance…they believed that those men would protect them, would keep them safe from the Israeli enemy… 

Alas…they discovered, and it was too late when they did, they discovered that those men who were supposed to protect them, were in fact hiding behind them. 

They discovered that those men were taunting the Israeli by firing at him from behind inhabited buildings, daring him to reply…your men, Mr. Nasrallah, were playing Russian roulette but with the gun aimed at the heads of the innocent victims instead of theirs…  

We all agree that the Israelis are retaliating with excessive force…no one is challenging this…what I am challenging is your tactics of turning this excessive force to your benefit at the cost of the lives of the civilians…this is, at best, Mr. Nasrallah, a criminal act, punishable, if not by the laws of the country which are so often bent and twisted, but by the Lord himself…that Lord whose name you use to call your party… 

Was this what you meant when you claimed you were reserving surprises to the Israeli enemy??? was this your “after Haifa” ???  Was Quana your after Haifa? If so, then I congratulate you on your napoleonean thoughts… 

Pray tell me, were you counting on the public outcry to force the Israelis into a cease fire and thus claim your victory??? Like what happened in April 1996???  Is this what you were aiming at when you fired rockets from the vicinity of the UN post not three days ago, causing a retaliation that killed four UN soldiers???

The outcry wasn’t strong enough…lets do a Qana II…it will have an impact for sure…it never fails…people are so gullible…we get the cease fire and come out as heroes…and in the way we cause Israel to suffer humiliation…

Some victory for Lebanon Mr. Nasrallah… 

Anyways, I am sorry for all those souls that are being lost day by day as this nightmare that has engulfed my country goes on, and I pray all the Gods of all the religions to make this madness cease.

Lebanon wants to live.

Lebanon wants to breathe.

Lebanon wants peace.

Give us peace, do not tear us to pieces. 

A followup on this article can be downloaded from HERE

This is a new site you see when you to any of Lebanon’s beaches this summer.

What is the possible outcome of this war ?
I dont think anyone can predict who s gonna win or not. What we all agree on is that Lebanon and its people are the biggest losers and paid the heaviest price.

We ve been hearing about the New Middle East map Condoliza was promoting during her visit. I honestly dont see how this is possible at all under the current circumstances. US administration wants to get rid of terrorist groups but this seems very costly and pratically very hard at the moment.
Terrorist groups have been growing so fast in the past few years and are getting so organized that no intelligence is capable of tracing them and Iraq is the best example.

War has been ongoing for 20 days now and this is when the Lebanese people will start living a state of war, gas is almost over, no more food stocks, nights and pubs r closed, Beirut is dead.
One week from now, the country will be paralyzed for good this time.

Hezbollah is still managing to hold back Israelis, unless Israelies r making him believe that.
Israelies r intensifying their attacks and are causing more massacres, Qana massacre being the last one.. Condoliza Rice asking Lebanon for a cease fire from Israel and Sanioura and Berri replying by asking Israel to stop first.
The World community wants cease fire but nobody is doing anything to make it stop.

All i see is 2 possible outcomes :

1- This is an endless war that started in Lebanon and will expand to other countries. We are going to pay very heavily for it and signs of a civil war will be showing in a few months or weeks if the war doesnt stop.

2- This rise in tensions in the previous few days is a sign that a UN resolution is being voted to resolve the issue once and for all. Cease Fire will be announced soon and UN will vote for Armed forces to be distributed all over the South, prisoners exchanged and Hezbollah disarmed completly. This may take some time but will put an end to this horrible war.

This is the overall view, lets hope the Lebanese government will know how to deal with Hezbollah and strenghen its sovereignty and build a real operating army once and for all

Monday 24 July, 2006.

this was one day where a 23 year old girl (my age almost) went to do what she did best - take photos. yet this girl, unlike many others, was not going to live out that day. Layal Nagib, a journalist that believed it her cause to “show”, “portray”, “present”, through her eyes and her lenses, she wanted people to “see”. this is the tragedy of human kind, the tragedy that leads to our death. Layal did not die by mistake… she died because this was her cause.

this young lebanese girl, who usually photographed in studios for a magazine, chose to go to the south. chose that her last picture would be one of a woman dead under the rubble.

was it worth it?

this is a question i ask myself everyday. if Layal had known her fate, would she have gone anyway? she had no experience, no financial need, and yet she went. she went and she made her last picture become a lost picture. a picture lost because the finger that pressed on that camera button will press no more.

yet, that last picture will be immortalized, and that last woman under the rubble will be immortalized. Layal did not keep her promise to her family, she did not go back home that day, but one day, one promise should and will be kept…

this is a promise that we should make for ourselves. a promise that every one of us will not take part in causing more death and destruction; this would allow another Layal to keep her promise.

We went to Beirut to film a TV show about the city’s newly vibrant culinary and cultural scene. Then the bombs started falling, and we could only stand on the barricades of our hotel balcony and watch it all disappear — again.

A nice piece by Anthony Bourdain at Salon.com [Link]

The situation in Ain Ebel is unbearable. Thousands of civilians have fled to the village from nearby villages and more than 1000 rockets have hit the village, there is no more food neither clean water and diseases r spreading.

Now here comes the most sickening part:
Hezbollah has been firing rockets from the village since Day 1 hiding behind innocent people’s places and even CHURCHES. No one is allowed to argue with the Hezbollah gunmen who wont hesitate to shoot you and i ve heard about more than one shooting incident including young men from the village and Hezbollah.
Urgent appeals have been done through phone calls from terrified people who wouldnt give out their name fearing Hezbollah might harm or even eliminate them.

This is the true image of our brave Islamic Resistance, putting the civilians and their homes as body shields to the Israeli bombardements.

Let the message spread and let those criminals move out of the village once and for all.
Free Ain Ebel from the terrorists !

Dr. Samir Geagea proposed a month ago an international force (around 20,000) to take over the South. Many politicians (Lebanese and International) are also backing up this solution.

Yesterday Al Zawahiri in his new tape said Al Qaeda will join the fight against Israel, the crusades, …. Hamid Al Ali, a Saudi Cleric, called for the support of Hezbollah. An Egyptian cleric, Al Qaradawi said that “Lebanese Resistance” (HA uses the name Islamic Resistance) is a true Jihad and Sunnites must support the Shiaa in this Jihad.

Imagine having 20,000 International troops in the South. We call the International troops, for Zawahiri, Qaradawi,… they are crusaders. 20,000 innocent soldiers thrown in Lebanon because the lebanese politicians can’t rule the country. Useless Lebanese politicans want an international force to do their job as well as the job of the Lebanese Army.

What we will have, my friends, is another playground for Jihadist movements. I know we have some already on the ground but with additional foreign troops, you will be giving these movements a big present.

The U.S. can’t do a thing against those Jihadists in Iraq. Syria is still pumping radical Muslims to Iraq. By introducing 20,000 foreign soldiers to South Lebanon, those Jihadists will be pumped to Lebanon.

The result will be more killings. This time, innocent international soldiers will die because our politicians can’t rule a country.

Why we should not ask for an international force? They have families, they have lives to live. They do not need to be slaughtered in the name of defending Lebanon democracy. A democracy Killed by our politicians after March 14. instead of moving Lebanon towards a true democracy, they brought it back to their old feudal system.

For the sake of mothers, sisters, wives, children and friends of foreign troops do not bring them to Lebanon. Let them enjoy their lives and freedom.

I just got this message from a friend.

“my source is from people trapped in the village of Ain Ebel. Its tragic… they are boiling grass to feed themselves. hizbollah are walking around the village harrassing innoncent civilians and accusing them of giving instructions to the israelis. its so far from the truth and nothing short of tragic.”

Hezbollah members have been harassaing Christians in this village forever. If you are not with them, then you are an agent. They are gonna pay the price for their filthy ways hopefully very soon.

Current Figures
Israel: 51
UN: 4
Lebanon: 405

[Link]

Yesterday guys, I heard an F16 Falcon passing above my house. I don’t know how to explain how it felt. The thundering sound of the plane is enough to make you pee in your pants.

I don’t know how the people of South Lebanon are handling what’s happening. What did they do to deserve the death and the destruction of their homes?

I hope in the coming days Israel will free them from Hezbollah, then they can be able to live in peacefully forever.

When Hezbollah guerillas abducted two Israeli soldiers from behind the demarcating blue line on that dreadful Wednesday 12th July 2006, the first reaction of the majority of the Lebanese is “where the heck are we going”…

In fact most of the country, after a year of gaining its independence from Syrian occupation was looking forward to the coming summer season…the 2005 summer had been sabotaged by a series of strategically positioned bomb blasts and killings of key Syrian opponents, so many looked forward to the coming season with great anticipation…many expats had finally decided to come back to their homeland after an absence that, for some, lasted for almost thirty odd years.

Add to this that there had been promises by Mr. Nasrallah himself that his militia would not undertake any action against Israel that might jeopardize the summer; the general feeling that reigned was “finally, Beirut is going to regain its place as the Paris of the East”. The estimated return from the tourism industry was in the region of two billion US Dollars. But all this was like counting the chicks before they hatched…

Israel’s retaliation to the abduction was as rapid as it was destructive.

Within 48 hours, they had neutralized Beirut International Airport, destroyed all the major bridges and isolated the south of Lebanon from the rest of the country…a major land, air and sea blockade completed the isolation of the country and the shelling continued: there were bombs from everywhere: from the air, from the sea and from the land…people could not escape.

Many Lebanese felt that this was not their war.

In fact, even though they resented the Israelis for their occupation of the South for a long period, they hated Hezbollah even more for taking the initiative to go to war without consulting with the rest of the country…they felt like they were taken hostage by a group of terrorists.

But, today, on the 16th day, most Lebanese feel trapped between two destructive entities that will not give up. And to make matters worse, no one dares to voice his opinion…for if you speak against Hezbollah, you are automatically labeled as an Israeli agent, and if you speak against the Israeli attacks, the world sees you as a supporter of the Islamic group.

What the whole world is not seeing is that there is this large section of the Lebanese population, from all religions and sects, that wants neither…they simply want to live in peace, be allowed to grow their kids like any one in the world, without having to worry when the next meal will be, or whether there will be enough baby formula in the supermarket to last them for the unknown duration of the conflict…

What the whole world does not see, is the even worse threat of civil war that hangs above the head of every Lebanese citizen should he decide to undertake any action from the interior of the country…at this point, tensions are very high between the major sects (Christian, Sunni and Druze) and the Shiites (composing sect of Hezbollah) despite the efforts of all the leading politicians and religious people to calm tempers down.

It must be noted that the country has been ravaged by civil war from 1975 to 1990, and many Lebanese, from all walks of life, were affected by this war…some still bear the psychological scars to this very day.

Add to this fact that the regular army, which was systematically weakened during Syrian occupation in order to strengthen the Party of God, is made up of a large majority of Shiites, any request by the government to disarm Hezbollah by force would lead to a split in the ranks, and ultimately to the dreaded civilian war. All this combines to put the government in a very weak position.

So, despite their disagreement and discontent with the Islamic party, many Lebanese citizens feel it is safer to stick to negotiations and talks, attempting to work out the issues in the most peaceful way possible.

The image of the hostage situation gone bad gets clearer day by day…the Lebanese people have been taken hostage by the Irano-Syrian militia and whoever that offered to rescue them, namely Israel, does not care about them as much as it cares for destroying the party and getting rid of the threat it poses on its own safety…

Some of the people have even succumbed to the Stockholm syndrome (The Stockholm Syndrome comes into play when a captive cannot escape and is isolated and threatened with death, but is shown token acts of kindness by the captor. It typically takes about three or four days for the psychological shift to take hold), and have come to accept Hezbollah as a legal entity.

Caught between the hammer and the anvil would be, alas, the best way to describe the whole situation…was it not said that when two elephants battle, it is the grass that suffers the most?

Caption: Muslims Demonstrate In Beirut
BEIRUT, LEBANON - FEBRUARY 06: A man holds a banner as he and moderate Muslims (not shown) demonstrate against attacks on Christian property by extreme Sunni Muslims February 06, 2006 in Beirut, Lebanon. Thousands of Lebanese Muslims attacked a church and smashed cars in the Christian side of Beirut yesterday as they set fire to the Danish consulate during riots over the publication of cartoons depicting the prophet Mohammad by a Danish newspaper. (Photo by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad/Getty Images)

Found this picture while searching for Lebanon at Photodisc.com. They have a picture of an Lebanese Forces member wearing a cross around his neck and carrying an LF flag with a large cross on it and they caption says he is a muslim. Here is a screen grab [Picture]

I blame the Lebanese people. Almost a year ago, the Lebanese woke up. They took the streets and forced the Syrian Forces to pull out of Lebanon. A few months later, they went back to sleep. By doing so, they allowed the traditional politicians and political parties to take over their revolution and cut it into pieces. The chance of turning Lebanon to a true democratic state was assassinated in front of their eyes and they didn’t budge. They watched the masquerade of “National Dialogue” unfold in front of them, they didn’t blink.

On the Christian sides, they were back to division LF vs. Tayyar. Both parties threw accusations at each others. Their supporters defended their leaders’ decision without even understanding those decisions. In reality, both group and leaders are the same. Both made the same mistakes. Yet, LF members and Tayyar followers didn’t see the tragedy of their leaders’ decision. One signed an accord with Hezbollah; the other entered a government that supports Hezbollah military actions. Both in a way or another politically covered Hezbollah. Result: War in Lebanon, 400 dead and counting, thousands of injured and displaced, total destruction. Same goes for the Muslim Lebanese, in a way or another; they also politically covered Hezbollah actions.

Here comes Mrs. Rice, ready to listen to the Lebanese factions. What do we as LF offer her? We offered her Mr. Adwan. He stood there next to Jumblat and Amin. I am sure both pitched their agendas. This is the “new” LF. We stood by others and accept to be a small player in all this.

What the LF should have done is go back to its original project. A project that had been circulating in the United State political circles as well as military and media. We should have presented her with our solution for Lebanon (I know many will say this is not the time or our solution has been dropped). This solution might be implemented all over the Middle East. Our project might be implemented all over the region, what do we do? We send Mr. Adwan; we drop the chance of presenting it. We drop our project. A week ago, I was reading a study about how federalism should be implemented in the Middle East. How federalism is the only solution for the region. What did we do when we had the chance to meet Mrs. Rice, we send her Mr. Adwan.

Some blame Hezbollah, others blame Israel. I blame the Lebanese people in general for letting go of their cedar revolution and in particular, I blame the Lebanese Forces for dropping federalism as a political project.

My brother is online now from Turkey. He left Lebanon yesterday with the Canadian Embassy on a crappy ferry boat and today, 20 hours later he arrived to Turkey. They had to sleep on the floor on the ferry and it was a fucked trip. He is now at a highschool stadium where surprisingly they have WIFI. This is what he had to say about the evacuation so far:

20 hours on a fucking ferry boat
it fucking sucks
seriously
it’s so bad
i will show you pictures when i get to kuwait
you will think i was on an african refugee boat
they’re so unorganized
those who aren’t going to canada, have to wait for the rest of the people to go to the airport to pick up luggage
then we have to find our way to Istanbul
i hate canada
the embassy lied to us and told us the ride is only 8 hours, when there are mothers with their children on the ship, it was horrible. 20 hours. Can you imagine? Wait till you see pictures of children sleeping near trash

update: my brother was really tired and exhausted when he wrote the above.

For more than six years, this Shiite Islamic group has been preparing for such a confrontation with Israel.
It was greatly helped by Iran in terms of weapons, missiles of all ranges and ammunition whereas Syria, which controlled the country for five of the six years, helped logistically and by turning a blind eye as to weapons movements.

But how are they organized, what makes them so efficient…to start of, it is important to stress that they do not operate as a regular army does. Their fighting is mostly Guerilla style fighting… or rather a “modernized” Guerilla style.

Firstly there are four levels of personnel in the militia, two fighting and two reserves:

1. The Elite fighters, these are trained veterans with years of exposure and multiple training tours in both Iran and Syria. There are rumors that some of these participated in the latest Iraki fights under Moktada el Sader’s command.
2. The “normal” sodiers: these are regular fighters with little or no fighting experience. They are usually in charge of logistic operations and other day to day activities and also participate in combats.
3. Reserve level one, are those that have finished their military training with the militia after their National Military Service at most three years ago. These are considered as still “fresh” in the sense that the training required to get them back into fighting level is minimal. Strictly logistics and information gathering. Very rarely put in combat situations.
4. Reserve level two, are those who have finished their military service for more than three years.
   It is important to note that both reserve levels undergo regular “refresh” training sessions for periods of one to three months.

Set aside from the four levels above is the suicide squad. Very little is known about the members in this squad since it is kept very hush hush. Since they have little training to do (for obvious reasons) they spend their time in prayers and contemplation.
Currently active in the war are the first three levels of fighters.

How do they operate?

Hezbollah have perfected the tactic of hit and run which makes it very hard for the Israelis, using traditional warfare techniques, to target them. They work in groups of five to six “elements” and each group is totally independent from the next group. Each has a general set of directives and most make their “plan d’action” as they go. This way, they are able to operate in the event of total loss of communication with the commanding base and there is no risk of anyone eavesdropping on conversations. And should anyone fall prisoner in the hands of the Israelis, he can only give out the plans of his group.

Each group travels using Cross bikes…this gives them flexibility as well as manageability on the terrain. Armed with light assault rifles and submachine guns and state of the art Chinese anti tank grenade propellers supplied by Iran, they are able to inflict severe damage to the opponent whilst sustaining minimal damage.

An example of how they operate can be given by the way they fire missiles, three bikes are used to perform the action:

1. One person stays at a distance providing surveillance and looking out for apache helicopters or spy planes
2. One group, on a bike, set up the launcher platform, without the missile. Total time: 5 seconds and they drive off.
3. One group delivers the missile and leaves. Total time 3 seconds.
4. One group sets the missile, fires it and leaves. Total time 10 to 20 seconds.
5. The first group comes back to collect the launch pad, if the observer informs them that all is clear, and replaces it in a subterranean hideout, to be used in the next operation.

All the groups leave in totally different directions.

The bikes are also used to lure the tanks into ambushes set up for them by fighters hiding in tunnels. The same tunnels are used to move between villages undetected and be able to surprise the enemy which relies on aerial images of the fight zone.

This fighting technique has caused great damage to the Israelis in their advance in South Lebanon.

It was observed that the only way the Israelis can counter it is by applying the charred land approach whereby any incursion should be preceded by heavy bombardment of the region by fighter planes, followed by a fine combing using heavy machine guns and helicopters before the infantry troops finally walk in.

Since the guerilla fighters hide between civilians, and operate from within inhabited or industrial areas, they greatly benefit from the coverage and lure IAF planes into bombarding civilians and factories which allows the Hezb to use the media coverage to its benefit.

Israel has had to resort to expelling all the inhabitants of the region out of the area and even beyond the traditional headquarters of Hezbollah namely southern suburbs of Beirut so as to minimize civilian causalities as well as any supportive action the Party of God can benefit from.

For those wondering about the clashes and how they are spread over the 10452 square kilometers that make up the country, here is a nice map I got from a friend.

You will be able to see where the land clashes are, the different areas targetted by Israeli bombings as well as the areas inside Israel that Hizballa rockets have hit.

Cheers and stay safe.